The Problem with War No One Talks About

There’s no shortage of reasons for people to hate war.  From the mass casualties to the displacement of civilians to the impact on the economy to the famine it can cause, war causes no shortage of problems for humanity.  However, there is an issue that most people don’t talk about when discussing war.

Wars don’t just produce winners, losers, and stalemates.  They also change countries, redefine their culture, build new alliances, and change national or international politics.  War has the potential to destabilize order and create new crises.  For that reason, it is worth discussing how that can (or could) change the political landscape.

After the United States removed Saddam Hussein, the country fell into a power vacuum with a shaky democracy.  As a result, Iran started setting up shop and backing militias that served its interests.  It also managed to build a relationship with Iraq through shared culture and religion.  

On the other end, the terrorist group ISIS rose in the absence of Saddam’s leadership and used hardship in the country to gain supporters.  As a result, his removal also led to the rise of a major terrorist organization in the region that the US also later had to fight.  Unintentionally, the US created an ally for one of its greatest enemies, and a new monster it also had to defeat just by eliminating one of its longtime enemies in the region.

Another example of strange relationships being forged during war would be the Napoleonic wars.  During the war with Napoleon, Prussian, Austrian, and Russian leadership had to come together as allies to oppose his efforts and stop him from conquering Europe.  However, all three nations were historic enemies so once the shared threat was gone, so was their unity.  War can create temporary alliances, but once the threat is gone the status quo will return.

The point is that war doesn’t just result in immediate pain.  It also causes regional crises and destabilize relationships among the populace.  It can also cause weird friendships that don’t last or get replaced when the moment arises.  So, it may be worth considering how current conflicts are already changing the region.

In Iran, the death of the previous Supreme Leader led to a power vacuum among leadership.  Since there’s no confirmation that the current Supreme Leader is even alive anymore, it seems that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is taking over the government and exerting even more control on the government than it already had.  As a result, the pretense of being an authoritarian theocracy is evaporating as Iran is about to become a military dictatorship with a theocratic front.

Meanwhile, there are even further divides in the Middle East.  With Iran’s attacks on regional states, already weak relationships with the country are gone as everyone (deservedly so) hates them.  Also, this is impacting other alliances as the UAE left OPEC, helping grow a rivalry between them and Saudi Arabia.  In short, the Iran War has shifted the balance of power in the middle east and made the Iranian Government even more authoritarian.

Another conflict that has potential to reshape the world order is the Ukraine conflict.  Obviously, what’s happening with Russia matters to Europe as Putin has claimed that many of the regions border it are historic Russian territory, trade between Russia and Western Europe is at an all time low which is impacting multiple national economies, and this is causing infighting across NATO as debates come on who should pay for how much of the military alliance.  So a former superpower attacking a country trying to join the biggest military and economic alliances on the globe shaking up their continent’s economy isn’t surprising.

What is surprising is the possible fallout.  Russia has seen its economy stagnate, especially in its capital city, and become increasingly dependent on China.  There has been a push for Russia and China to join forces, but that has resulted in Russia becoming a junior partner as China is starting to push its influence more into the country and seems to have plans for what it wants to do with Russian territory.  With that happening and the decline in trade, Russia is seeing its influence and connection to Europe shrink.  So it's looking to be another “once great empire” with limited influence and continued military defeats against Ukraine could result in it being seen as not much of a threat to European nations.

The elimination of a European threat may be seen as a positive, but like Napoleon’s downfall, the end of a shared threat brings about old rivalries.  After all, both Ukraine and Poland are historic rivals who have a shared hatred of Russia.  When their common threat disappears, how long might they stay as allies?

This is an interesting question.  Poland intends to have the largest land military in Europe by 2030 while Ukraine has been leading the way in drone technology.  If those countries found themselves both wanting to dominate Eastern European cultural influence, they may find themselves in a Cold War.  So one must wonder what will happen if Russia is defeated like the West wants.

So, will Iran become the Middle Eastern North Korea?  Will Russia become a vassal state to China?  Will Poland and Ukraine go to war?  Honestly, there’s no way to make predictions like that.

There are many factors that can change the outcome of wars, politics, and culture shifts in a region.  There’s the desire to always assume the worst case scenario, but that’s usually unlikely.  Time will tell what will actually happen.  All of this is merely factors to consider in our current world.

Which highlights the actual point of this blogpost.  Though war has obviously terrible aspects, the long term effects it can have on domestic and international politics is staggering.  As a result, it reshapes the world we live in as friends become enemies, enemies become friends, and enemies become even worse enemies.  Time will tell what our conflicts today will lead to, but most likely they’ll lead to conflicts of tomorrow.

An Update on Ukraine: A Big Player in the Middle East

Between the war in Iran, political debates over redistricting, a possible coming invasion of Cuba after the capture of the President of Venezuela, the Reform Party growing in the UK after local elections, the defeat of the Prime Minister of Hungary at the ballot box, a growing war in Mali, the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, and much, much more, it can be easy to forget that Ukraine is in the middle of a war with Russia.  With the war entering its fifth year and limited territorial changes, Ukraine has taken a back seat in terms of media attention.  However, there have been some interesting developments recently that might be worth bringing up for anyone interested.

With the recent war in Iran, Ukraine is getting a lot more attention from Middle Eastern countries as many are interested in buying anti-drone technology from Europe’s breadbasket.  Ukraine has been pursuing deals with countries like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar with more to come.  This would allow for the exchange of military expertise and create joint manufacturing lines between Ukraine and its partners.  Those countries get the technology to defend their countries while Ukraine gets a hefty payday and new technology that it can use in its war with Russia.

The main reason for interest in drone technology has to do with Iran’s war with the US.  Iran has been hitting targets in those countries despite their original neutrality.  Targets have included the capital of Saudi Arabia and civilian infrastructure in the UAE.  With Iran’s love of using drones, there comes a need for using new technology to shut them down and Ukraine’s own history of drone warfare makes them a prime supplier for drone defense technology.  Keeping in mind that Russia and Iran have a history of drone trade, then that means that Ukraine’s experience in fighting them is even more vital.

Of course, Ukraine isn’t just making financial deals on drone tech or selling them to those countries.  Ukraine has already sent 200 military advisors to the Middle East to help with that technology.  Likewise, Ukraine has also admitted to helping shoot down Iranian drones in the region.  So Ukraine is becoming an active participant in the Iran War, even if indirectly.

What’s interesting is Ukraine’s motivations for being involved with the war.  Now, the money is an obvious incentive, or one could say that President Volodymyr Zelensky is doing it out of the kindness of his heart.  However, there is a consistent bogeyman at the heart of Ukraine’s actions, and that bogeyman is, of course, Russia.

Due to Iran’s depleted stockpiles, Russia is supplying Iran with drones as well as targeting information and other support.  There were also rumors that Supreme Leader Motjaba Khamenei was hiding in Russia to get medical care.  So Russia is also an active participant in the Iran War, and opposition to Iran does serve the objectives of Ukraine as well so long as that is the case.

It’s not just the Middle East though that’s interested in Ukraine’s tech.  Zelensky said that about 20 countries are interested in his drone technology, and that includes European countries like Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany.  A Dutch company that was helping the US track drones even said that Ukraine played a role in developing its technology.  So Ukraine is redefining warfare and technology in the modern day and for the future.

With that in mind, it’s probably important to understand the US is likely going to need Ukraine going forward just as Ukraine needed the US during its own war.  The US is still developing its own drone technology and warfare approach, and with drones redefining war in the 21st century, it will need the support of countries like Ukraine that have had that experience.  Also, with Russia supporting US enemies like Iran and China, that means that we’ll need countries that have a history of dealing with Russia as they do benefit from the international conflict.  For example, Russia was actually set to benefit with oil sales due to the shortage from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and corresponding price hikes, but Ukraine’s attack on the Russian oil industry has reduced that windfall.  So Ukraine will be a vital US ally if we let it be, and it seems like it is playing a key role in dealing with the consequences of our own wars.

As for Europe, the future is increasingly becoming the East.  Poland now has the largest land military in the EU which makes it a dominant country in the region.  Meanwhile, Germany has deployed its own troops outside its borders for the first time since WWII, and they deployed them to Lithuania which has a border with Russia.  So the future of Europe is increasingly becoming the East, and that will have consequences for the West.

So all of this shows just how internationalized war is in modern times.  The US goes to war with Iran, Iran gets support from Russia, Iran attacks the Middle East, the Middle East buys tech from Ukraine, and Ukraine plays a role in the US’s foreign policy objectives.  One could say we may already be in WWIII, but that may be too premature a call.  Regardless, Ukraine will be positioned to be a big player in world affairs if it can survive the war with Russia, and it will be interesting to see what the future holds for it.

Putin Meets with China's Enemies

This blogpost is going to be very late, but it’s worth making sure the general public is aware of what’s going on on the Asian continent.  Over a month ago, Vladimir Putin went on a trip to Vietnam and North Korea, officially to discuss new military ties.  However, one thing worth considering about both nations is that they both have at best mixed histories with Russia’s “ally,” China.  While Russia has become increasingly dependent on China as its relationship with the West has deteriorated, its outreach may be aimed at creating a counterbalance to China’s power and may cause further divisions between the two nations.

For context, with Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, relations have continued to deteriorate between the country and most of Western Europe.  One example of this would be alleged Russian involvement in overthrowing the governments of multiple former French colonies.  However, the most pressing reason for deteriorating relations is the war in Ukraine itself which resulted in reduction in trade between the West and Russia.  To compensate, Russia has become increasingly dependent on trade, especially military trade, with alternative countries such as China.

The relationship between Russia and China has always been contentious though because (my friend Sean says) no country wants to be the junior partner.  Both nations have always had territorial, military, and political disputes.  Current problems with their relationship include China claiming parts of Russia are historic Chinese territory (which there is a case for) and Russia preparing plans for a preemptive nuke strike on China in the event of needing to win a war fast.  In short, it seems that as Russia becomes more dependent on China, China wants to take advantage of Russia while Russia wants to maintain its independence.

So Putin’s decision to visit North Korea and Vietnam this year likely isn’t something that made Beijing particularly happy.  North Korea also has a contentious history with China while Vietnam has an outright hostile relationship with them (not helped by the fact that China invaded them after the US did).  With all that historic background, it does seem possible the Russian President wanted to discuss potential alliances against China.

Though Russia has its own territorial disputes with Ukraine, China has other issues with its neighbors as well.  Americans may be familiar with China’s desire to take Taiwan, but they are in a border dispute with India (a Russian ally), they are in a territorial dispute with the Philippines, and there are deteriorating relations between Malaysia and China.  All this though also ignores historic clashes between China and countries like Japan or South Korea.  Bottom line, most Asian countries that aren’t China, hate China.

So Putin’s decision to meet with Vietnam and North Korea suggests Putin may be preparing for the worst with China.  Of course, both have a mutual enemy with the US, but like with the US and USSR after WWII, the lack of an enemy often leads to division.  Regardless, Putin’s actions with China’s neighbors may suggest Russia considers their “ally” China a potential problem in the future.