This past Tuesday, May 5th, Indiana held its primary elections. Those who went to bed early woke up to find that Trump endorsed candidates had swept at the ballot box with five out of seven challengers beating incumbent state senators. Outside of that, one state senator who voted against redistricting lost to a non-Trump backed candidate while a Trump backed candidate won a three way primary. The President had a good night this week and one that will play a key role in shaping future policy in the state.
This marks a continued trend, though, of Trump backed candidates winning across the country as he has had a high success rate with his endorsement over the past decade. After all, his candidates have won 90% of primaries and more than a majority in the general elections of both midterms and Presidential election years. Sure, one could say this doesn’t matter as much since much of his domestic agenda has stalled in Congress and many of his backed candidates could have won anyway. However, those points are irrelevant as Trump is reshaping the Republican party with his endorsed candidates getting elected, which means the party will be the vehicle for his platform going forward long after he’s out of the White House while the old party fades away.
Now Trump’s not purely the reason that a lot of incumbents are finding themselves facing early retirement. The truth is that most of them are just old and out of touch with where the times are. Several of them were in politics for decades and times have changed. Finding themselves out of touch, it was only a matter of time before they found themselves either leaving gracefully or being pulled out of their offices.
Indiana is a reflection of that better than any state as most of the redistricting opponents have been there for decades. Both Sens. Jim Buck and Greg Walker originally intended to retire this year, which probably made sense since the latter was in the state senate for about two decades and the former was in the state legislature for three. Sen. Travis Holdman, who claimed his district opposed redistricting efforts, has been a state senator since 2008 and was also removed. Meanwhile, the only two non-redistricting senators that survived the primary, Sens. Greg Goode and Spencer Deery, only became senators within the last five years. So a lot of the election was a replacement of the old guard.
That’s generally happening across the U.S. political spectrum as a whole. Various Trump critics/opponents that had positions in the GOP like Robert Mueller, Dick Cheney, and John McCain have all passed away. Others, like Mitt Romney, John Boehner, and John Kasich have all retired. In reality, a lot of Trump critics were the ones from the yesteryears of either the Bush or Clinton administrations, and they’re finding themselves removed because they’re simply too old. So a lot of what’s happening under Trump is just the natural transition of the old guard leaving.
Unfortunately for NeverTrumpers, the fact that incumbents are leaving or being aged out doesn’t mean that this isn’t beneficial to the President. Far from it as he is the one replacing them. As mentioned earlier, many of his candidates are winning primaries, and, even if they don’t win the general election, having so many successful candidates win nominations means that the party will be taken over by people open to the President’s agenda.
After all, elections have consequences and they can cause ripple effects. In Indiana, there’s already calls to replace the Senate Pro Tempore from his position. Also, new discussions on redistricting once he’s gone are coming up, which means Trump could get his new districts in the state of Indiana. Unsurprisingly, the states of Florida, Tennessee, and more seem to have gotten the message and are now approving new districts. We’ll see if they survive potential court challenges, but this will set precedents for redistricting that will outlast the President. So his influence will be far reaching because it will set a precedent for future politicians or legal precedent for rejecting such legislation.
That is reflected in the makeup of the national party as well. Already, the future candidates for President and thus leadership of the party include members of his administration like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance so the 2028 nominee will likely be a continuation of the Trump era. Their candidacies are also worth noting because many former critics of his administration like them and Lindsey Graham are now strong supporters of his Presidency. Meanwhile, former supporters like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Joe Kent that have turned hardcore critics are no longer in office anymore and can only complain about him to the media and on podcasts. Also, certain politicians like Sen. Rand Paul and Congressman Thomas Massie are still in office (at the time of writing this post), but they’re simply individuals that don’t seem to be influencing future nominees for office (yet). So in the long run, it looks like Trump is going to influence the party for a while as his candidates win.
So, now that Donald Trump is taking over the Republican party, what does that mean for the future of the average voter? Will the Republican become the shining example of patriotic nationalism dedicated to bringing about an almost religious love of the United States? Will many NeverTrumpers make peace with the Democrats and mount a counter offensive, relegating the Republican party to a junior party nationally?
Well, that’s a question for another day, but some of the implications might be discussed in a future blogpost.
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