The Problem with War No One Talks About

There’s no shortage of reasons for people to hate war.  From the mass casualties to the displacement of civilians to the impact on the economy to the famine it can cause, war causes no shortage of problems for humanity.  However, there is an issue that most people don’t talk about when discussing war.

Wars don’t just produce winners, losers, and stalemates.  They also change countries, redefine their culture, build new alliances, and change national or international politics.  War has the potential to destabilize order and create new crises.  For that reason, it is worth discussing how that can (or could) change the political landscape.

After the United States removed Saddam Hussein, the country fell into a power vacuum with a shaky democracy.  As a result, Iran started setting up shop and backing militias that served its interests.  It also managed to build a relationship with Iraq through shared culture and religion.  

On the other end, the terrorist group ISIS rose in the absence of Saddam’s leadership and used hardship in the country to gain supporters.  As a result, his removal also led to the rise of a major terrorist organization in the region that the US also later had to fight.  Unintentionally, the US created an ally for one of its greatest enemies, and a new monster it also had to defeat just by eliminating one of its longtime enemies in the region.

Another example of strange relationships being forged during war would be the Napoleonic wars.  During the war with Napoleon, Prussian, Austrian, and Russian leadership had to come together as allies to oppose his efforts and stop him from conquering Europe.  However, all three nations were historic enemies so once the shared threat was gone, so was their unity.  War can create temporary alliances, but once the threat is gone the status quo will return.

The point is that war doesn’t just result in immediate pain.  It also causes regional crises and destabilize relationships among the populace.  It can also cause weird friendships that don’t last or get replaced when the moment arises.  So, it may be worth considering how current conflicts are already changing the region.

In Iran, the death of the previous Supreme Leader led to a power vacuum among leadership.  Since there’s no confirmation that the current Supreme Leader is even alive anymore, it seems that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is taking over the government and exerting even more control on the government than it already had.  As a result, the pretense of being an authoritarian theocracy is evaporating as Iran is about to become a military dictatorship with a theocratic front.

Meanwhile, there are even further divides in the Middle East.  With Iran’s attacks on regional states, already weak relationships with the country are gone as everyone (deservedly so) hates them.  Also, this is impacting other alliances as the UAE left OPEC, helping grow a rivalry between them and Saudi Arabia.  In short, the Iran War has shifted the balance of power in the middle east and made the Iranian Government even more authoritarian.

Another conflict that has potential to reshape the world order is the Ukraine conflict.  Obviously, what’s happening with Russia matters to Europe as Putin has claimed that many of the regions border it are historic Russian territory, trade between Russia and Western Europe is at an all time low which is impacting multiple national economies, and this is causing infighting across NATO as debates come on who should pay for how much of the military alliance.  So a former superpower attacking a country trying to join the biggest military and economic alliances on the globe shaking up their continent’s economy isn’t surprising.

What is surprising is the possible fallout.  Russia has seen its economy stagnate, especially in its capital city, and become increasingly dependent on China.  There has been a push for Russia and China to join forces, but that has resulted in Russia becoming a junior partner as China is starting to push its influence more into the country and seems to have plans for what it wants to do with Russian territory.  With that happening and the decline in trade, Russia is seeing its influence and connection to Europe shrink.  So it's looking to be another “once great empire” with limited influence and continued military defeats against Ukraine could result in it being seen as not much of a threat to European nations.

The elimination of a European threat may be seen as a positive, but like Napoleon’s downfall, the end of a shared threat brings about old rivalries.  After all, both Ukraine and Poland are historic rivals who have a shared hatred of Russia.  When their common threat disappears, how long might they stay as allies?

This is an interesting question.  Poland intends to have the largest land military in Europe by 2030 while Ukraine has been leading the way in drone technology.  If those countries found themselves both wanting to dominate Eastern European cultural influence, they may find themselves in a Cold War.  So one must wonder what will happen if Russia is defeated like the West wants.

So, will Iran become the Middle Eastern North Korea?  Will Russia become a vassal state to China?  Will Poland and Ukraine go to war?  Honestly, there’s no way to make predictions like that.

There are many factors that can change the outcome of wars, politics, and culture shifts in a region.  There’s the desire to always assume the worst case scenario, but that’s usually unlikely.  Time will tell what will actually happen.  All of this is merely factors to consider in our current world.

Which highlights the actual point of this blogpost.  Though war has obviously terrible aspects, the long term effects it can have on domestic and international politics is staggering.  As a result, it reshapes the world we live in as friends become enemies, enemies become friends, and enemies become even worse enemies.  Time will tell what our conflicts today will lead to, but most likely they’ll lead to conflicts of tomorrow.

A Primer on the Situation in Ukraine

By now, everyone knows there is a war going on between Ukraine and Russia.  Some people know more than others, but it is also hard to know for certain what is going on right due to limited communications and propaganda on both sides.  With this blogpost, I hope to maintain an objective portrayal of current events and hopefully give people information to understand the current situation.

Background

Russia and Ukraine are the two largest countries in all of Europe and located in the regions of Eastern Europe close to Asia.  Ukraine sits atop the Black Sea and north of Turkey and Russia is to its East.  Collectively, the two have clashed for millenia over resources and land while developing different languages and cultures.  Allegedly, Kiev, Ukraine’s capital city, was the furthest distance St. Andrew, apostle of Jesus Christ and brother of the first Pope St. Peter, reached and would serve as an important city in the Christianisation of Eastern Europe.

During the early days of the Soviet Union, the newly established USSR took over the country as one of its Republics.  Many atrocities were committed against the Ukranians, especially the Holdomor where Soviet Leader Joseph Stalin caused a genocidal famine that wiped out millions of people.  Unsurprisingly, there has been bitter tensions between the two countries.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine once again regained its independence from Russia.  However, Russia still maintained massive influence over the region with the Russian government even receiving support from some leadership.  To this day, the country is largely divided among mostly Ukrainian speaking peoples in the western half of the country and a mix of Ukranian and Russian speaking peoples in the eastern half.

Unsurprisingly, this has led to a divided country which is why the country welcomed a relatively pro-Putin President in 2010 and then overthrew him in 2014.  Ukraine’s Euromaiden protests against and eventual ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 played a huge part in souring ties with Russia and being the first domino that led to the current day war.  Since then, Ukraine has been pursuing closer ties with the West that may result in EU and NATO membership.  This primarily is what the current war is about and unpacking this will help explain the international implications.

The Russian Perspective

Historically, NATO was created as an alliance against the Soviet Union and Russia still treats it as a military threat.  Members of NATO include historical enemies (and sometimes allies) such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland, whom Russia has fought multiple wars with and against (the Crimean, Napoleanic, the Cold, and World Wars being the most obvious) so there is historic resentment towards those respective nations.  A NATO membership for Ukraine would guarantee Western and US troops on Ukrainian soil which pose a national security risk for the Russian Federation.

There is also the desire for Ukraine to join the EU which would put on an economic trajectory closer to the West.  Increased cultural and economic separation from Russia would weaken Russia’s control in the region and since the two share a border, that would be a staging area for a potential invasion.  So to simplify: Russia is fighting to keep NATO troops out of its backyard and to maintain dominance in a region it has historically considered its sphere of influence.

The Problem with the Russian Perspective

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been trying to portray this as a humanitarian excursion to protect the region from nonexistent genocide.  He even went to go as far as claiming that he was denazifying the region, which is weird considering the fact that the President of the country is Jewish and lost family in the holocaust.  They also declared independence for the Donbas region and others which was used as pretext for an invasion far outside of that region.  Overall, Putin is trying to portray this as a humanitarian peacekeeping mission and really what is in his interest.

The Ukranian Perspective

For Ukraine, the biggest issue is sovereignty.  It has long been under direct control of Russia and independence has been an opportunity to pursue self-determination.  As a result, the Ukranians are currently fighting for the right to pursue their own treaties, trade, and military affairs free from control of Russia.

There are multiple reasons for Ukraine to join the EU and NATO.  For the former, such trade and economic reform could greatly increase their economy and help them export vast natural resources that could improve their standard of living.  NATO also does offer protection from its neighbor and could help strengthen its military, though it does also invite increased scrutiny from Russia.  Regardless, such concerns are the business of Ukraine and they are fighting for the right to make those decisions, right or wrong.

The Problem with the Ukranian Perspective

There have been allegations of vast influence from the West to get them to this position.  Some believe the West played a part in the overthrow of Yanukovych.  It does not help as well that Biden offered a $1 billion loan guarantee around the time current Ukrainian President Zelensky changed his mind on whether or not Putin was going to invade.

The West stands to gain a lot financially from trade with Ukraine which is why there has been a lot of push to get the country to join the EU.  Similarly, increased connections have been growing between Ukraine and the West, with the son of current President Joe Biden working for a questionable Ukrainian gas company (of which an investigation was stopped by Joe Biden when he was Vice President under a threat to withhold aid).  Some critics claim that the future of Ukraine is to replace one master with another, which is why some contend that the push for sovereignty is disingenuous.

The Western Perspective

Ignoring financial concerns, leadership in the United States has made the Russian Federation its main antagonist over concerns about the latter's involvement in the US’s 2016 Presidential elections and growing conflicts with Russian allies like Syria, Turkey, and China.  Dragging Russia into a failed war in another country has the potential to put extreme pressure on its economy and military, with the US hoping for a resulting in a collapse the same way the Soviet War in Afghanistan did (which lasted for 10 years so it’s best that doesn’t happen for Ukraine’s sake).  Considering the fact that a member of the Brookings Institution called for regime change in Russia, this only builds on the idea that the US wants Putin gone.

What Seems to be Happening Now

All reporting seems to confirm that Russia is being held back by Ukrainian partisans and military.  They are holding back better than expected while Russia seems to be underperforming with lackluster military planning and equipment.  The Russians have made significant military mistakes to the point that some military analysts are becoming baffled with their decisions.  Meanwhile, an outpouring of military and economic support is crossing the border in hopes to help hold off the Russians.

However, they are still continuing through with taking over the regions they were expected to and still hold the military advantage.  Reports try to portray Ukraine as winning victories, but things are still going in Russia’s favor, even if slowly.  Much of this was predicted by a YouTuber whose analysis has been rather accurate thus far and he said Russia would own half the country so the idea that Russia is losing should be disregarded.  As a result, it would not be too surprising if the narrative suddenly changes soon.

In response, the west is trying to impose economic sanctions to stop Russian advancement and further isolate it from the world in an attempt to slow the invasion.  Already, they have been removed from the SWIFT payment system which allows for financial transactions like credit cards and are looking for alternatives to goods traded with the country.  The Russian stock market has already taken a hit and the Ruble is being devalued so this will greatly hurt its economy.

The Propaganda War

Currently, the narratives being pursued by both countries are actually benefiting both sides.  Right now, there are stories of Ukrainian military men making a bold stance against their invaders and this is being used to rally support and sympathy from the rest of the world.  Unfortunately, many of them (Serpent Island, the Ghost of Kiev, the image of President Zelensky in a military vest) keep turning out to not be true so it is hard to gauge how effective the Ukrainian military is actually fighting back.  Still, this is being used to bolster the message of a heroic Ukraine standing up against the world.

Similarly, Russia needs its actual operations downplayed and low-key.  The invading force is claiming to be working to restore peace to the region, protect minority populations, and stop war crimes (again, this is all a cover).  This is why Russian media is portraying the Ukrainians attacking civilian structures or their populations (whether these are true or not) to demonize their opponents.  They are also posting about foreign weapons being used in the country to further make the Ukrainian government look primarily western backed.

This section is not dedicated to attack either party but to instead highlight the symbiotic relationship between the two narratives.  A strong, heroic Ukrainian military gives the impression of strength and power that limits the idea they are victims, while downplaying Russian success allows their actions to be disregarded and better hidden.  As a result, each is benefiting from the other’s narrative, and those may fall apart soon.

Similarly, it shows no story can be trusted.  Nobody knows what’s actually going on in the region right now, and it’s impossible to tell where lies end and truths begin.  We only know what is being reported from biased media and journalists so that limits the scope.  Everything must be treated skeptically and unproven until it can be independently verified.

International Implications

Outside of Europe, China has been plotting to take Taiwan for years.  The island nation is considered Chinese territory by the PRC government, but the Taiwanese government views itself as independent.  The government of China is watching this to gauge US weakness to see if it could invade the country with limited issues so what happens in Ukraine will impact that.

Likewise, isolating Russia from the SWIFT system will have major implications on the global economy.  Doing so will definitely hurt the Russian economy, but it could also weaken the global financial structure as it will hurt companies that house Russian assets.  Likewise, Russia has been working out a deal with the Chinese government to create an alternative reserve currency so this has the potential to weaken the US as the global world standard and create parallel economies.  Either way, if Russia does go through with this, the world would enter into a new Cold War with both the west and east trying to suck up as many countries as possible to divide the world along economic lines.

Chances of Causing WWIII - Moderate

WWIII is always overstated, but this is probably the best chance something could snowball into a greater war.  This is the first major war on European soil since WWII and there is intense pressure for it to escalate.  There are multiple avenues for that to happen and it seems like there isn’t one where things start to deescalate. 

The best option would be for the situation in Ukraine to end with peaceful negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, but there are major obstacles to pursuing that.  Ukrainian diplomats have said the Russians seem disinterested in actually negotiating and aren’t budging from their positions so it’s unlikely they’ll capitulate.  If they cannot be pursued diplomatically, then a decisive military victory will be necessary to end the war.

Already, Zelensky is pushing for escalation as he asked for a no-fly zone above Ukraine.  For the US to institute that, they would have to likely shoot down Russian plans which would spark a war between the US and Russia.  With some members of the US government like Senator Roger Wicker calling for that and increased discussion growing, that is still possible.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would guarantee a war in Asia as well.  Already, China is feuding with its neighbors and losing Taiwan as a source of microchips at a time of microchip shortages would further hurt the global economy.  With China feuding with its neighbors (a territorial dispute with India, historic disputes with Japan and Vietnam, fishing disputes with the Philippines, resource disputes with Australia, etc.), there is plenty of reason to believe a growing coalition could exist to fight China in the future.

In addition, Russia and China do not have the population needed to maintain economic and military growth in the long term.  Despite landmass, Russia has an economy by GDP about the size of Italy and has faces massive population decline.  China is facing similar problems with the country still facing an aging population because of the one child policy.  As a result, they won’t have enough troops to face the rest of the world in the future.

This would suggest the two couldn’t maintain a war, but this is only going to get worse with time as both lose citizens.  They may not have time to wait this out and a war in the current era may reduce the chance they’ll lose one in the future.  That kind of pressure may make them more likely to lash out and drag the world into another war.

Not helped is the fact that Russia seems to be preparing for larger conflict.  They are already preparing their nuclear arsenal and have drafted every medical professional in the country in the need of larger conflict.  They have also made threats to Sweden and Findland.  Whatever is happening right now, Russia is further gearing up for war.

Finally, the decision to cut them off from SWIFT and isolate their economy could only further increase tensions.  Russia and China have been planning a world currency for a decade, and in a way, this gives them the excuse to finally pursue that.  Doing guarantees that there will be parallel economies to the west and the east, and India has already announced it will find ways around the SWIFT system to work with Russia to continue trade.  Also, there has been a push to reduce trade with China so that means China is next on the isolation list. 

Removing Russia and China from the world economy guarantees parallel economies.  Parallel economies reduce dependency and that means that people will be less likely to rely on each other so bad impacts on one will not reverberate on the other.  My paternal grandfather once said “If goods don’t cross countries, then bullets will” so isolation only increases the likelihood for war.

Still, none of this is a guarantee war will break out.  In order for war to happen, the first shot needs to be fired.  So it is possible they choose not to go through with it.

What Needs to Happen

It’s far too late to discuss that now.  To counter Russia, the US needed to increase gas production and guarantee troops would not be stationed near the country, thus never serving as a threat.  Instead, the Biden administration has gone in the opposite direction on both so we are past the point of making up for it.

What Will Happen

I’m not making predictions.  I predicted Putin would not invade Ukraine and that Trump would get reelected.  I got both wrong.  My words are meaningless.

In Conclusion

The purpose of this blogpost has been to contextualize the war, establish the stakes, and discuss possibilities.  Escalation is only likely as a path towards not escalating gets increasingly less likely.  Still, only the leader can determine what of this post matters and what they believe the impact will be.  If this helps in any way, then it has accomplished its purpose.