American Foreign Policy: You’re Either With Us or Against Us!

Unsurprisingly, there was mass controversy surrounding statements by double President Donald J. Trump last month.  While this is the norm, specifically the post will be addressing statements he made to reduce military exercises with South Korea.  Much of the world was shocked by his decision since historically South Korea has been a vital ally against long time U.S. enemies North Korea and China.

Now, many were shocked at the President’s announcement, especially since it seemed to be in part related to a former bromance between Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.  However, Trump is a master of misdirecting public conversation so the immediate conversation ignored the most important part of the cancellation.  Specifically, his decision to cancel the military exercises over South Korea’s decision to not support the U.S. in its current war with Iran.  As such, the U.S. is reconsidering many foreign relationships as it is now asking how truly loyal the rest of the world is to its objectives.

South Korea is hardly the only country to face repercussions over perceived lack of loyalty.  Arguments over Iran led to the President reducing troops in Germany and Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly questioning the purpose of NATO.  Then, of course, there was the fighting between the Vatican and Washington.  In short, there seems to be a belief that if you question the U.S., the country will start to reduce its support for yours.

Military correspondent for Newsmax Ryan McBeth noted that the United States is increasingly cancelling its relationship with countries that won’t support its objectives.  Keeping in mind that Trump got elected on a promise to reduce foreign entanglements and focus on American issues at home, this is seen more as a surprise to his non-interventionist supporters.  However, it seems that America First is being less of a call against foreign intervention and more a demand to other countries over who they need to please.

So this is reprioritizing other country’s military objectives away from their own citizens and more towards ours.  Keeping in mind that support from the United States makes up a large portion of the European defense budget and we are protecting their ability to trade, most of those countries can’t exactly walk away from us.  If that doesn’t come as increased spending for NATO, that may instead mean support in other ways such as required sanctions on military enemies.  Keeping in mind that Europe wanted increased trade with Iran, their interests may not be represented by the U.S. at this time.

That begs the question then as to what this will lead to going forward.  After all, there are moral concerns about US foreign policy, economic concerns as well, and concerns about feasibility.  How might the rest of the world handle such decisions or how should it act?

Well, the purpose of this blogpost isn’t to make moral judgments or recommendations.  Merely to make an awareness of what seems to be the thinking or direction current events are going.  Instead, we’ll be discussing the possible consequences that could come from this direction on and for foreign policy.

Now, the priority of every country needs to be the well-being of its people.  Every country has to consider whether a relationship with the United States is worth it.  So what that determination is could likely lead to one of three foreign policy outcomes.

First, countries get increasingly independent or form new alliances.  Many countries, like Saudi Arabia or South Korea, have the capability to pursue developing the nuclear bomb, and if they can’t trust the U.S. to provide proper deterrence against their historic enemies, they may be provoked into increasing the number of countries in the world with nuclear bombs.  In addition, the U.S. 's frenemies Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia to counter their rivals (and two U.S. frenemies) Israel, India, and (US enemy) Iran.  This alone shows that other countries are capable of forming alliances that exist outside of the European or Chinese spheres of influence and thus could make new counter balances to existing power.

Then again, other countries may have an interest in simply replacing their dependence on the U.S. with dependency on China.  Europe has been pursuing new, better relationships with China as Britain pursued building a better embassy in London or returning the Chagos Islands to China’s ally Mauritius while France has pursued greater trade with China and sought their support to end the war in Ukraine.  In addition, Canada, the U.S.’s neighbor to the north, had pursued a greater oil trade deal with China.  So, instead of developing new alliances or replace the US with their own militaries, these countries may just want a new creditor to continue their dependency.

Of course, the U.S. likely wouldn’t let that happen peacefully.  After all, the country has seen China as a threat, if not outright enemy, for at least the last decade and a half so it’s no surprise that it wouldn’t want its allies making allies with the dragon empire.  Just ask Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil, which is allegedly receiving US support in its bid for independence at a time when Canada is both pursuing better relations with China AND a trade war with the U.S., its biggest trading partner.  Likely, the U.S. has other plans for other nations as well so it’s worth asking if pursuing such a new alliance is worth it.

Finally, there’s the possibility that other countries just accept the U.S.’s new foreign policy and decide that it’s better to stay in its good graces.  After all, the U.S. still has the world’s largest GDP and most advanced military so there are reasons to stay friends with it.  Across Latin America the U.S. is supporting anti-crime initiatives (with or without that country’s support) so there is a benefit to receiving U.S. aid.  Meanwhile, the overthrow of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela told that country what can happen if you cross President Trump, so unsurprisingly the new President is all too happy to work with the Secretary of State.  So there are still people that want to do business with us.

Whatever happens, this is America’s foreign policy until 2029 and (I personally find it) doubtful that it’s going to change anytime soon.  We’ll see what the future holds, but this is what other countries will have to accept if they want a relationship with the world’s only superpower.  Either way, only the reactions of those countries will determine if that direction is here to stay.

Why Celebrities Dying Hurts: Farewell Hayden Panittiere

Writer’s note: I wasn’t going to post this, but after several deaths that happened almost immediately afterwards, I wanted to put it up to help people with grief.  So, it will be here for now.

Last month, actress Hayden Panettiere passed away at the age of 36, five days before her birthday.  Though not a household name, she was a very prominent actress who has done a lot of work during her career both on screen and voice acting.  Many people were upset by her death, myself included, especially since she left the world so young.

Her death continues a trend of celebrity deaths that have gotten a lot of attention recently.  A lot of different actors have passed away in the past couple decades and it’s always sad to hear about it when it happens.  For some, it’s not too surprising as they get older and eventually pass away.  For others, it’s especially surprising because they leave surprisingly young.  Even more go in ways that seem completely unfair and make their deaths all the more tragic.  Regardless, the death of any person is a loss and finding out they are no longer with us hurts.

There is a worthwhile question though as to why people feel the need to mourn or comment when famous people die.  After all, we didn’t know them personally and they weren’t a direct part of our lives.  So why should we mourn them more than any other stranger?

The simple answer is because they had an impact on us.  Everyone can think of a time when some piece of fiction touched them or helped them in some way.  From watching shows to get us through sad times to going to the movies for celebration to getting up on Saturday morning to watch the good guys defeat evil and learn from their example, fiction always has the potential to impact us more than just as mindless entertainment.  So it becomes a part of our struggles and joys just as much as anything else.

It’s not just a selfish or loneliness thing either.  Plenty of memories are shared with friends watching movies or playing games together.  After all, plenty of guys take their dates to the theater, plenty of kids watch shows with their friends, and plenty of coworkers argue over some video game they both played for that reason.  So the various actors or content makers play a part in our social time and making those memories.

When someone involved with it passes away, we are impacted in two ways.  First, it’s like losing someone we know.  Sure, the relationship is transactional, but they were still a part of our time and made it better.  So when they die, it’s like losing a friend, or at least an acquaintance.

Second, it reminds us of those memories of the time we spent enjoying their work and that it is all truly over.  In part, when we say goodbye to them, we are saying goodbye to the memories they gave us as well.  So we grieve that piece of us just as much as the person.

The truth is that when someone like that passes, it both brings back those memories and reminds us that they’re over.  It speaks to the impact one person can have just by doing a good job or putting on a good show.  So that’s why storytelling and acting get such attention in society.

For Hayden Panettiere, she left behind a worthwhile career.  She was in a variety of significant animated films like A Bug’s Life, Pixar’s second film, and Dinosaur, Disney’s first CGI animated film.  She was in more prominent shows like Nashville or Heroes, as well as fan favorite films like Ice Princess and a Bring It On sequel.  Fans will remember her for the joy those stories brought, and the volume of her work shows how big her impact was during her life.

For me though, I remember her most from video games.  One of my first experiences with her work was through Kingdom Hearts where she played the protagonist’s love interest, Kairi.  That game series alone was one of my favorites and defined a key part of my childhood.

In my spare time, I like to play the piano and my wife got me a copy of the music from those games for our one year anniversary.  Since I got that book, I started playing more and more until I started playing at least one song from it nightly.  When I play it, I get to go back to my childhood where I’m alongside my favorite Disney characters and taking a stand against darkness.  She was a part of what made that game so fun and years later why I started playing the piano so regularly.  It’s crazy to think about how one piece of fiction can leave an impression on someone so thoroughly even years later.

Then there was Until Dawn where she played Sam, one of the lead protagonists.  It was a game that redefined narrative driven games and provided hours of entertainment because of the ability to change outcomes based on player choices.  From watching countless Let’s Players rage at their mistakes to playing it myself countless times, the game provided countless hours of joy.

However, the game alone wasn’t what made it fun.  Because of either its popularity or its impact, everyone who played video games loved it in one way or another.  Plenty of friends, coworkers, and strangers played it and thus we all had something to talk about.  So that game gave us something to bond over, regardless of how well we knew each other.

So that’s really why we connect with celebrities we don’t personally.  The work they leave behind can change us when done well and provide connection under the right circumstances.  It’s no surprise, then, that we grieve when they leave us just like an acquaintance.

Hayden didn’t have the easiest life.  From a rough experience in Hollywood to domestic abuse to the loss of her family, she had a life most people don’t envy.  She left behind a daughter whom she never felt she could mother properly yet still brought into the world.  So her passing is all the more tragic.

Yet, she left behind a legacy and touched many people who are all grateful for what she did and left behind.  So, as we mourn her, let us be grateful for her and honor legacy by trying to do the same for others.  May she rest in peace, as all people will when the time comes

Getting Caught Up

 

Hello everyone!

This past month, I’ve been extremely busy and thus unable to update my blog.  I have still been writing, but I have not had time to edit.  As a result, I have several blog posts that are waiting to be published.  They’ll likely be rolled out over the next couple days, but several of them are out of date.  As a result, they will be updated as needed to be somewhat more accurate, but will still be late relative to when the topics were popular.

This will be posted here to explain why there are so many late posts.  Thank you all for your patience, and for hopefully reading the future posts.  The posts will likely be rolled out over the next couple weeks.  So, time to get caught up!

The Problem with War No One Talks About

There’s no shortage of reasons for people to hate war.  From the mass casualties to the displacement of civilians to the impact on the economy to the famine it can cause, war causes no shortage of problems for humanity.  However, there is an issue that most people don’t talk about when discussing war.

Wars don’t just produce winners, losers, and stalemates.  They also change countries, redefine their culture, build new alliances, and change national or international politics.  War has the potential to destabilize order and create new crises.  For that reason, it is worth discussing how that can (or could) change the political landscape.

After the United States removed Saddam Hussein, the country fell into a power vacuum with a shaky democracy.  As a result, Iran started setting up shop and backing militias that served its interests.  It also managed to build a relationship with Iraq through shared culture and religion.  

On the other end, the terrorist group ISIS rose in the absence of Saddam’s leadership and used hardship in the country to gain supporters.  As a result, his removal also led to the rise of a major terrorist organization in the region that the US also later had to fight.  Unintentionally, the US created an ally for one of its greatest enemies, and a new monster it also had to defeat just by eliminating one of its longtime enemies in the region.

Another example of strange relationships being forged during war would be the Napoleonic wars.  During the war with Napoleon, Prussian, Austrian, and Russian leadership had to come together as allies to oppose his efforts and stop him from conquering Europe.  However, all three nations were historic enemies so once the shared threat was gone, so was their unity.  War can create temporary alliances, but once the threat is gone the status quo will return.

The point is that war doesn’t just result in immediate pain.  It also causes regional crises and destabilize relationships among the populace.  It can also cause weird friendships that don’t last or get replaced when the moment arises.  So, it may be worth considering how current conflicts are already changing the region.

In Iran, the death of the previous Supreme Leader led to a power vacuum among leadership.  Since there’s no confirmation that the current Supreme Leader is even alive anymore, it seems that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is taking over the government and exerting even more control on the government than it already had.  As a result, the pretense of being an authoritarian theocracy is evaporating as Iran is about to become a military dictatorship with a theocratic front.

Meanwhile, there are even further divides in the Middle East.  With Iran’s attacks on regional states, already weak relationships with the country are gone as everyone (deservedly so) hates them.  Also, this is impacting other alliances as the UAE left OPEC, helping grow a rivalry between them and Saudi Arabia.  In short, the Iran War has shifted the balance of power in the middle east and made the Iranian Government even more authoritarian.

Another conflict that has potential to reshape the world order is the Ukraine conflict.  Obviously, what’s happening with Russia matters to Europe as Putin has claimed that many of the regions border it are historic Russian territory, trade between Russia and Western Europe is at an all time low which is impacting multiple national economies, and this is causing infighting across NATO as debates come on who should pay for how much of the military alliance.  So a former superpower attacking a country trying to join the biggest military and economic alliances on the globe shaking up their continent’s economy isn’t surprising.

What is surprising is the possible fallout.  Russia has seen its economy stagnate, especially in its capital city, and become increasingly dependent on China.  There has been a push for Russia and China to join forces, but that has resulted in Russia becoming a junior partner as China is starting to push its influence more into the country and seems to have plans for what it wants to do with Russian territory.  With that happening and the decline in trade, Russia is seeing its influence and connection to Europe shrink.  So it's looking to be another “once great empire” with limited influence and continued military defeats against Ukraine could result in it being seen as not much of a threat to European nations.

The elimination of a European threat may be seen as a positive, but like Napoleon’s downfall, the end of a shared threat brings about old rivalries.  After all, both Ukraine and Poland are historic rivals who have a shared hatred of Russia.  When their common threat disappears, how long might they stay as allies?

This is an interesting question.  Poland intends to have the largest land military in Europe by 2030 while Ukraine has been leading the way in drone technology.  If those countries found themselves both wanting to dominate Eastern European cultural influence, they may find themselves in a Cold War.  So one must wonder what will happen if Russia is defeated like the West wants.

So, will Iran become the Middle Eastern North Korea?  Will Russia become a vassal state to China?  Will Poland and Ukraine go to war?  Honestly, there’s no way to make predictions like that.

There are many factors that can change the outcome of wars, politics, and culture shifts in a region.  There’s the desire to always assume the worst case scenario, but that’s usually unlikely.  Time will tell what will actually happen.  All of this is merely factors to consider in our current world.

Which highlights the actual point of this blogpost.  Though war has obviously terrible aspects, the long term effects it can have on domestic and international politics is staggering.  As a result, it reshapes the world we live in as friends become enemies, enemies become friends, and enemies become even worse enemies.  Time will tell what our conflicts today will lead to, but most likely they’ll lead to conflicts of tomorrow.

The Room Where it Happens: Why Politicians are Disconnected from Voters

Most people familiar with the U.S. know how important politics is in its culture.  We pioneered 24-hour news, college campuses are synonymous with activism, and we essentially redefined several countries' governments to reflect our own.  The vote is considered sacred in parts of the U.S. and our Democratic system of government is something many politicians are constantly calling on the public to defend.  So why does it feel hollow in the modern day?

It feels increasingly that voting and political involvement are a waste of time.  If you take a look at how politicians vote vs. public opinion, you’ll find huge gaps on how voters feel vs. how politicians vote on issues such as balancing the budget, war, campaign finance reform, and much more.  As a result, many Americans, especially younger ones, have a negative view of the country’s government and a negative view of Democracy.  One must wonder where that view comes from or why people feel the way they do.

Well, the obvious scapegoat is massive corruption.  It’s easy to claim all politicians are liars or that they all take bribes once they get to Congress and sell out on their alleged principles.  While there’s some evidence of that, that’s at best an oversimplification.

The truth is that it’s actually because of a natural disconnect between elected officials and the average voter.  Many people who get elected don’t have as much connection to the needs of their constituents either because of background, history, social connection, or even geography.  As a result, their relationship to the public is weak, and that thus furthers division in the United States.

Aristotle noted that politics is the association of people within the polis, the community.  For me, simplifying his writings, that means the relationships of people in a given group.  It’s why concepts like church politics, office politics, marriage politics, and such other examples exist.  So we are in “politics” with the people we have connections to.

That’s the real problem with division in the U.S. that doesn’t get as much conversation as it deserves.  When people don’t have those relationships with each other, there is no social connection and, indirectly, there is no country.  Thus, different factions form within a nation’s borders and it becomes not a question of “what do the people want?” but “whose coalition is bigger?”

If we take a look, then, at the average politician vs the public, what they end up dealing with is significantly different.  For the voter, they get hit harder with higher prices, taxes, crime, job security, and plenty of other issues that are extremely relatable to the average person.  As a result, what they care about is what they experience immediately or has the biggest likelihood of hurting their way of life.

Politicians, of course, also experience these issues so it’s still of concern to them.  Sure, the average congressman is still wealthier than the average American so they feel it differently, but all people are human so “kitchen table issues” still impact those at the top.  However, what’s on their plate is different because of the people they spend time with on a given day.

The average politician also has to meet with a vast group of people.  They have to meet with lobbyists, foreign dignitaries, each other, activists, staff, and more to stay ahead in elections, get legislation passed, and fulfill basic human needs like social connection.  Also, quite a few actually sleep in their office or live in/around DC so their “community” of sorts isn’t their base but their fellow politicians.  As a result, that adds to the disconnect just by having them engaged more away in a city than at home.

It just goes back to the nature of government.  The average person doesn’t have to declare war, handle humanitarian crises, or reconsider existing tax rates to pay the federal budget.  The average politician, well, is supposed to if they’re doing their job.  As a result, the culture, purpose, and requirements of the job put a wedge between the public and the office holders.

Now, one might be tempted to ask if there’s a way to bridge that gap and reconnect the elected officials with their constituents.  I don’t want to say it’s impossible as that would be dismissive of the question and there are ways politicians can spend more time with their constituents.  However, the divide isn’t just a recent problem but an eternal one.

Every person on this planet only has so much time to spend and only so much time they can spend it with at any given moment.  Just like being friends with everyone isn’t possible, being connected to people all the time isn’t possible either.  So relationship prioritization and social connection will still dominate any field a person finds themselves in as well.

One suggestion would be to have more representatives of groups in communities to balance out that disconnect.  Either to get more people that have a tighter connection to the community into existing positions or create new positions that will reconnect the out of touch establishment.  This is short sighted, though, because it merely adds to the existing bureaucracy and adds to the disconnect.

Changing out the people won’t actually solve the disconnect because it doesn’t actually fix the relationship problem.  If we added more congressmen, that would increase the opportunity for community connected candidates, but over time they’d also get bogged down in the metaphorical swamp that is politics.  Switching out people is also irrelevant if they get the position and can’t actually do the job.  As a result, there may be some change to what policies get enacted in any institution, but adding or changing industries or fields without addressing the relationship issue means more of the same under a different coat of paint.  Perhaps, then, the real thought to consider is thus: do politicians “sell out” because they got corrupted or found out what they wanted was impossible?

In addition, there is another problem that needs to be addressed: the media.  People can act like following the news gives them insight into the workings of DC when in reality it’s its own politics entirely.  The news serves more of a role of entertainment, a manipulator, or a sink for you time than it does act like an actual informer.

It’s the key issue that many news stories that are important usually get limited attention from the mainstream media while they follow other issues that people allegedly care about.  So issues like America’s transition away from Europe in favor of Asia, asking regular factories to start making weapons, and the US surrounding Cuba get limited attention while the world is instead discussing rumors about schools having litterboxes in schools, backlash to the Superbowl halftime show, and Trump feeding koi fish.  Really, the discussions from the media, legacy or online, have many holes on covering important issues so trying to use it to understand current events can have incredibly mixed results and not truly be a gateway to politics.

Now the conspiratorial perspective is that the media is intentionally trying to distract the public from important issues or cover up major news.  However, the truth is much more complicated than that.  The media traditionally cares about what news stories will get the most views so what they talk about is inevitably going to be what gets the most viewers on TV, clicks on social media, or watches/listens on podcasts.  As a result, it goes to the crazier stories as opposed to what may be important but isn’t interesting.

All of this comes back to the key problem which is the disconnect between the different groups.  As our society stops engaging with people more and more, that level of social cohesion starts to evaporate and we break down into separate factions that aren’t connected to each other and thus their interests are completely disconnected.  For this reason, the interests of our politicians, citizens, and media are severely disconnected.

Which is why the general public can’t expect their views to be reflected in current legislation.  They’re not in the room where legislation is being made, so they’re disconnected from policy that affects them, and policies that admittedly aren’t in their area of interest.  So it’s unlikely to matter too much who gets elected in changing major issues when the biggest problem isn’t the specific positions, but the lack of social cohesion and shared interests.

Nevertheless, there is still something that can be done about that.  Specifically, the individual has to get involved at the local level.  Not run for local office, just engage in the community.

As mentioned, politics are the relationships in the community.  So a person who doesn’t have connections to or relationships with their local community, even if they are aware of current events, isn’t engaged.  So that means to make the world a better place, they have to start in their own backyard.

There’s a variety of ways one can get involved in their local community.  Plenty of churches and non-profits need volunteers, plenty of politicians need supporters at their events when they're in their districts, and plenty of clubs or organizations are always looking for new members.  There’s always a way to help and have an impact if you’re willing to make an effort.

Just remember two things before doing that though.  First, remember that you have to grow in virtue and connection yourself.  If you’re not making the effort to be a good person before engaging, the temptation for self-serving attitudes will still be there.  Second, you’re engaging in that group because you believe in it for its own sake.  It’s okay to leave when you’re no longer connected, but what group you engage with still has its own needs and goals so using it as a stepping stone is disrespectful to the group you’re in at the time.

Still, that’s the real way to make change and improve the world: social connection.  You may not be able to stop the next war, but you can still help keep the silverware at the next community picnic clean.  There’s no way to quantify the impact that could have or the doors that could open for people, so give a try.  It’s the only we’re ever going to fix that disconnect and heal the divides that separate us as a people.