
There’s no shortage of reasons for people to hate war. From the mass casualties to the displacement of civilians to the impact on the economy to the famine it can cause, war causes no shortage of problems for humanity. However, there is an issue that most people don’t talk about when discussing war.
Wars don’t just produce winners, losers, and stalemates. They also change countries, redefine their culture, build new alliances, and change national or international politics. War has the potential to destabilize order and create new crises. For that reason, it is worth discussing how that can (or could) change the political landscape.
After the United States removed Saddam Hussein, the country fell into a power vacuum with a shaky democracy. As a result, Iran started setting up shop and backing militias that served its interests. It also managed to build a relationship with Iraq through shared culture and religion.
On the other end, the terrorist group ISIS rose in the absence of Saddam’s leadership and used hardship in the country to gain supporters. As a result, his removal also led to the rise of a major terrorist organization in the region that the US also later had to fight. Unintentionally, the US created an ally for one of its greatest enemies, and a new monster it also had to defeat just by eliminating one of its longtime enemies in the region.
Another example of strange relationships being forged during war would be the Napoleonic wars. During the war with Napoleon, Prussian, Austrian, and Russian leadership had to come together as allies to oppose his efforts and stop him from conquering Europe. However, all three nations were historic enemies so once the shared threat was gone, so was their unity. War can create temporary alliances, but once the threat is gone the status quo will return.
The point is that war doesn’t just result in immediate pain. It also causes regional crises and destabilize relationships among the populace. It can also cause weird friendships that don’t last or get replaced when the moment arises. So, it may be worth considering how current conflicts are already changing the region.
In Iran, the death of the previous Supreme Leader led to a power vacuum among leadership. Since there’s no confirmation that the current Supreme Leader is even alive anymore, it seems that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is taking over the government and exerting even more control on the government than it already had. As a result, the pretense of being an authoritarian theocracy is evaporating as Iran is about to become a military dictatorship with a theocratic front.
Meanwhile, there are even further divides in the Middle East. With Iran’s attacks on regional states, already weak relationships with the country are gone as everyone (deservedly so) hates them. Also, this is impacting other alliances as the UAE left OPEC, helping grow a rivalry between them and Saudi Arabia. In short, the Iran War has shifted the balance of power in the middle east and made the Iranian Government even more authoritarian.

Another conflict that has potential to reshape the world order is the Ukraine conflict. Obviously, what’s happening with Russia matters to Europe as Putin has claimed that many of the regions border it are historic Russian territory, trade between Russia and Western Europe is at an all time low which is impacting multiple national economies, and this is causing infighting across NATO as debates come on who should pay for how much of the military alliance. So a former superpower attacking a country trying to join the biggest military and economic alliances on the globe shaking up their continent’s economy isn’t surprising.
What is surprising is the possible fallout. Russia has seen its economy stagnate, especially in its capital city, and become increasingly dependent on China. There has been a push for Russia and China to join forces, but that has resulted in Russia becoming a junior partner as China is starting to push its influence more into the country and seems to have plans for what it wants to do with Russian territory. With that happening and the decline in trade, Russia is seeing its influence and connection to Europe shrink. So it's looking to be another “once great empire” with limited influence and continued military defeats against Ukraine could result in it being seen as not much of a threat to European nations.
The elimination of a European threat may be seen as a positive, but like Napoleon’s downfall, the end of a shared threat brings about old rivalries. After all, both Ukraine and Poland are historic rivals who have a shared hatred of Russia. When their common threat disappears, how long might they stay as allies?
This is an interesting question. Poland intends to have the largest land military in Europe by 2030 while Ukraine has been leading the way in drone technology. If those countries found themselves both wanting to dominate Eastern European cultural influence, they may find themselves in a Cold War. So one must wonder what will happen if Russia is defeated like the West wants.
So, will Iran become the Middle Eastern North Korea? Will Russia become a vassal state to China? Will Poland and Ukraine go to war? Honestly, there’s no way to make predictions like that.
There are many factors that can change the outcome of wars, politics, and culture shifts in a region. There’s the desire to always assume the worst case scenario, but that’s usually unlikely. Time will tell what will actually happen. All of this is merely factors to consider in our current world.
Which highlights the actual point of this blogpost. Though war has obviously terrible aspects, the long term effects it can have on domestic and international politics is staggering. As a result, it reshapes the world we live in as friends become enemies, enemies become friends, and enemies become even worse enemies. Time will tell what our conflicts today will lead to, but most likely they’ll lead to conflicts of tomorrow.







