Review of my 2018 Election Forecast

Short review of everything I predicted in the 2018 midterms. This post was originally longer, but shortened for focus:

1. I was off in the Senate races by one (assuming McSally wins which I do) since Dean Heller lost Nevada. However, I knew Rick Scott and Mike Braun would win and those two were probably the more important races of the night. Also, as I said, pick up of 3.

2. I got the house wrong as I said the GOP would hold it. They lost by a slimmer margin than expected, but still that has to be admitted.

3. I was off the governors races by one (assuming Kemp wins which I do), but got more wrong based on the ones I predicted. I predicted the GOP would hold Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nevada while the Dems would take Ohio and Iowa, but the reverse happened. The first three probably had fatigue from eight years under the previous administrations, while Iowa had the benefit of incumbency and Ohio had a Republican who had previously held state office. However, I correctly predicted DeSantis winning in Florida despite polling and was extremely happy with that outcome. Also, I forgot to mention the GOP would take Alaska, but that was expected.

Predictions for the 2018 Election

            All year I’ve been looking forward to making a political prediction for the midterm elections.  After spending the 2016 year following political trends, I made a long series of predictions and surprisingly got more seats right than some of my friends expected. However, this year that is going to be much harder.  Unfortunately, most of the polls are both EXTREMELY close and well within the margin of error so it is impossible to get a good read on the election field.  In addition, the concept of a “Blue Wave” has been routinely pushed since last year and disregarded at different sections of the year so there is also the possibility that the samples of likely voters may not represent actual turn out.

            So overall, there is no clear way to know who is getting elected this year. Everything is so close in many ways that it could go anywhere from the status quo staying the same to Democrats taking the house in a landslide, and I’ve been stuck at school or DC so I haven’t really gotten a read of the electorate outside of IU.  As a result, I’m extremely skeptical any of my predictions will be accurate. However, trends in polls still exist as polling for candidates may be consistent and enthusiasm on both sides is high.  So I’m going to make my best guesses based on the information I have despite acknowledging I could be completely wrong on election day.

            To start off with the senate, I expect the GOP to increase its hold in the senate by about three seats (with a possible fourth).  The GOP should hold every senate seat and make pick ups in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri while the Dems hold the other seats.  In Arizona and Nevada, both GOP candidates are averaging ahead, but Heller will have the benefit of incumbency while Arizona has consistently voted for Republicans at the state level and recent events do not bode well for Sinema.  Meanwhile, Cramer is blowing Heitkamp out of the water while Hawley had a polling advantaged ahead of McCaskill since August.  Donnelly on the other hand is only ahead by a slim margin in a close race so natural partisanship will help Braun significantly once undecided voters have to vote in addition to the fact Donnelly has run a campaign where he says he promotes Trump yet votes against him on Kavanaugh, healthcare, and tax reform which weakens his credibility and message which calls into question inconsistency.  Finally, Rick Scott is within the margin of error with most of his recent polls, the GOP does have a lead on Democrats in early voting, and Rick Scott was reelected in 2014 despite being projected to lose so there is a strong chance Florida could swing his way, though Nelson has remained ahead in almost all polls so it would still be an upset if Scott wins.

            It’s hard to list 435 individual races so I’m instead going to go with trends I’ve seen in the House races.  According to RCP, the Dems have led the GOP in the generic house ballot by about 3-9 percent throughout the year, currently ranking in at a 7.3 point advantage which means they will make SOME pickups.  However, going by the Roll Call election guide and individual polls in the state, the GOP can still win individual races that would still put it well over the 218 number it needs.  I expect the GOP to therefore hold the house by winning all projected races in the guide which puts them at 201 seats in addition to the tossups with Dave Brat in Virginia, Steve Watkins in Kansas, Tom MacArthur in New Jersey, Mark Harris in North Carolina, Dino Rossi in Washington, Andy Barr in Kentucky, Troy Balderson in Ohio, Mia Love in Utah, Mike Bishop in Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, Pete Sessions in Texas, Carlos Curbelo in Florida, John Faso and Claudia Tenny of New York, and Young Kim, Steve Knight, and Dana Rohrabacher of California, plus potentially more coming out on top.  However, all Indiana congressional districts are projected to stay the same which means there will be no change.

            Finally, there will be the governors races.  The Dems will make huge gains as a lot of those seats were given to the GOP in 2014 which was an excellent year for them.  So the GOP will lose New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio, Iowa and Maine, but hold about everything else.  Iowa and Ohio have seen the Dem be the consistent favorite on RCP so things are leaning in their favor.  Kansas has the Republican with a minor consistent lead in the polls, Greg Orman is running as an independent which will cut into the Dem base, and the Dems were expected to win four years ago but still lost which will bode well for the GOP.  Wisconsin will still probably go Republican due to the incumbency as Scott Walker has survived multiple harsh challenges during his tenure and pulled through so he’ll have that going for him.  At the same time, the whole of the GOP is out voting in Nevada due to the senate race so I expect crossover since the race is so incredibly close plus the Republican has the average lead on RCP. Finally, I expect the GOP to hold Georgia and Florida as Brian Kemp has the lead in the former while in the latter Andrew Gillum has been hurling insults left and right while dodging a corruption probe which never ends well (plus positive early voting for Republicans in the state).  Beyond that, everything else should stay the same.

            To clarify, I really am unsure of how the election will go.  However, I really have looked forward to this all year so I would be unhappy if I didn’t.  So this is my best estimate of how the election will go.  Only tomorrow will tell if the election goes correctly or if I’m wrong.  Still, as always, civility is best and I wish all candidates the best tomorrow.  It is going to be an interesting two years regardless of who wins.

Halloween: October 31, 2018

Today is Halloween, the night of fright.  This is normally a festive time where people of all ages run around dressing up in costumes to get as many treats as possible. Unfortunately, the recent events of the Florida bomber and the Synagogue shooting have me rather upset.  In addition, the country is in the middle of a bitter election that just keeps getting worse.  As a result, there's a lot on my mind and I want to put it here.

First, Halloween is a time for fear.  We see it in our films, stories, and haunted houses which we love to attend this time of year.  Unfortunately, the goal of the recent terrorist attacks has been to instill fear in our hearts, to make us feel unsafe in our homes.  Some of the worst things in history were justified in the name of fear, so we can't let them win by dividing us and giving into that urge.  For as Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said, "Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that."

Second, All Hollow's Eve is the day before All Saints Day and two days before All Souls Day.  It is on this day the Catholic Church celebrates and remembers the souls that have gone before us.  This has been celebrated in Mexico, Ireland, and France.  Recently, 11 innocent people lost their lives, and left behind loved ones despairing right now beyond words.  In the spirit of the season, we should keep them in our thoughts and prayers as we celebrate this holiday.

Halloween is a special time.  Every year, families spend time together going door to door, visiting neighbors they probably don't talk to otherwise.  That should serve as a reminder that no matter how polarized we allegedly are, we still trust our fellow man.  And with that in mind, the best thing you can do is go out there, meet up with friends and neighbors, and try to make their lives in this dark, dark world a little better.  In short, "if you want to make the world a better place, take a look at yourself, and then make a change."

My Summer Interning for Rep. Larry Bucshon

            Today ends my internship with Congressman Larry Bucshon.  I have spent the entire summer in Washington D.C. interning for the congressman from May to August.  This marks the end of my third congressional internship (I had two district internships with Congressman Luke Messer and then-Congressman Todd Young) and my second in DC (with FreedomWorks).  My time in DC gave me a lot of opportunity to meet with people, follow up on old relationships, start new ones, and take in everything the city had to offer.  I can honestly say that this has been a fruitful and productive time and I have very much enjoyed myself.

            There was a lot of work to do in the office from day to day to make sure it was running smoothly.  A lot of what I did involved constituent outreach, mostly with taking phone calls and writing letters of response to those constituents about the very issues they called about.  I was also tasked with research projects to study information on the district for different projects the office was doing.  Beyond that, I also served as a gofer for the different needs, from getting flags to organizing letters to be sent out to anything the office needed.  All of it may seem simple, but every job has an important feature when running an organization and I was happy to play my part in any way that was needed for the Congressman and the good people of Indiana’s 8^th District.

            However, the most significant work I did was probably giving tours to constituents of the Capitol Building.  Many constituents would request a tour through their congressman and it was the duty of the interns to show them the various sites throughout the building.  That required memorization the layout and history of large portions of the building before we could present it which took about two weeks before we were ready to give the tour.  However, it was probably my favorite part of the tour as it provided the greatest opportunity for personal service.   I got to improve the experiences of individuals experiencing Washington DC and that was a huge honor.

            Beyond that, my time in the office gave me a lot of opportunity to work with a bunch of individuals.  The office was comprised of many different people with unique personalities and interests so it took time to get to know everyone individually.  My supervisor especially was very fun to work with.  He was very well qualified for his job, knew the ins and outs of the office, was dedicated to his work, and I liked talking to him.  I also got to make friends with the other interns as well.

            However, Congressman Bucshon was also in the office a lot and I had the opportunity to listen to him privately.  Often he would talk about a lot of differing political or legislative issues going on in Congress or throughout the country.  I can say without a doubt he was extremely intelligent as he had a strong understanding of the issues he discussed, the history surrounding those issues, and the need to address them.  The fact that he was a doctor then wasn’t surprising.  In addition, he had a lot of personality so you got a real feel for who he was like his love of hockey which he used to play.

            Outside of the office, there were other opportunities for social interaction.  I got a chance to follow up on a lot of my old contacts from FreedomWorks while I was here.  The IU Alumni association hosted events and meet ups that I was able to attend and meet people there.  Also, a bunch of organizations like Heritage and AIPAC hosted networking events that I was able to take advantage of while at the same time my church hosted meet ups with people my age where I made a very good friend.  So I was certainly keeping busy.

            The city offered a lot of opportunities for entertainment as well so I had a great time just being in DC.  The monuments as always are a treat from Washington to Jefferson.  The many Smithsonian and other museums were a delight to attend and I had a great time perusing each.  However, there were some lesser focused on attractions such as the First Church of Scientology (which is a historic landmark now for some reason) and the Heurich House which gave an insight to the history of DC that were not directly related to its political side.  In addition, there were three Catholic Shrines next to Catholic University which I got to attend so I was kept quite busy.

            However, the best weekend was the one I got to spend with my family.  Over the weekend before the fourth of July, my parents, two youngest siblings, and I went to a minimum of three Presidential homes (Jefferson’s Monticello, Madison’s Montpelier, and Monroe’s Highland).  We got to enjoy the other sites of DC as well like Arlington.  So there was a lot to take in throughout Virginia as well and there was never a dull moment.  Overall, I made the most of my DC experience.

            I have to thank Congressman Bucshon and my supervisor for giving me this wonderful opportunity to spend another three months in DC (increasing the total of months spent here to nine).  I got to continue to do public service while being in a place that I enjoy with friends old and new.  I’m a year out now from graduation and soon I’ll be doing something similar full time.  This internship provided many opportunities for the future and gave me needed experience I’ll always cherish.  If I do end up in DC afterwards, I’ll know I’m in an excellent place.

Sirens: A Review

            I’ve been putting this off forever, but I’ve wanted to talk about this show for a while.  Thanks to Hulu (which the show is no longer on), I was able to watch the show “Siren,” which is on Freeform.  Mermaids as a mystical creature tend to fascinate me so I wanted to see what the show was going to do with them.  However, I felt it deserved attention and wanted to use my blog to promote it. Remember though, it was weeks ago since I saw this so it’s been a while, but a lot is still fresh in my mind.

            The show takes place in Bristol Cove, a town that at one point had a legendary experience with mermaids.  At the beginning, a fishing vessel accidentally picks up a mermaid doing a normal run.  Almost immediately, the military shows up and takes away the mermaid and one of the injured crewmen.  Meanwhile, another mermaid, which can sprout legs when needed, comes on land to find its captured sister.  So it’s up to the descendant of the captain from the mermaid legend, Ben Pownall his marine biologist girlfriend, and the younger crewmen of the ship, who Ben has worked with in the past and is friends with, to find out exactly what is going on as well as to save their captured friend.

            I’ll start of by making a comparison to give an idea for what the show was like. In the simplest vein, it was essentially Stranger Things if it was a modern adult drama about mermaids instead of a parallel dimension.  In both, you have a government conspiracy and cover up, unanswered questions about interaction with a previously untouched world, a bunch of different characters with different goals relating to the world they inhabit, and lives being changed by things going wrong.  Stranger Things season 1 is better, but I felt Siren was better than season 2 as it wasn’t retreading previous ground.  Take that for what it’s worth as you might be able to tell whether or not you’d be interested.

            First off, the story kept me engaged.  The story has a natural flow with events constantly coming and going while nothing overstays its welcome.  This keeps the audience on its toes as a lot does transpire throughout the ten episodes. The show also takes advantage of Mermaid lore (especially the songs) so there are no missed opportunities.  This makes the overall experience quite pleasant.

            The acting is really good as well.  Everyone turns in an excellent performance and make the characters both memorable and likeable.  All those involved have understandable and sympathetic goals, even the villains, which make their struggles much more engaging.  Elin Powell especially turns in an excellent performance as Ryn, making her otherworldly and naïve of her new surroundings, but also intelligent and powerful.  Definitely there is a lot working in this show’s favor.

One last thing of note from a purely selfish standpoint.  The evil scientist is played by Ron Yuan, who also played Crown Prince Tatsu in the video game Command and Conquer: Red Alert 3. Tatsu was one of my favorite characters in that game so it was nice to see Yuan here as well.  His portrayal of scientist Dekkard was just as excellent and really made me feel for the character who was studying the mermaids. He really portrayed his struggle and goals.

            One other thing I like personally is the fact that there isn’t too much of a love triangle throughout the story.  Normally with a story like this, you end up with the main character falling in love with the female humanoid creature, but that was mostly avoided. Since he was in a pleasantly strong relationship already, it would have felt out of nowhere and unnecessary.  It seems odd to praise a show for not doing something, but this seriously helped.  So definite points there.

             Unfortunately, there are draw backs to the show.  As previously stated, this is a drama and it follows a lot of the tropes you’d expect. There’s a quest for revenge, a dark secret, and other things that tend to make it into the genre.  Fortunately, there isn’t necessarily a set path so there is still an element of surprise as things come up.  Also, the execution does pull off the events in ways that are interesting so that does help as well.  However, based on the criteria, you will know what to expect as the show continues.

            In addition, the last episode had some elements that felt really forced. Without getting into spoilers, a lot of the elements felt added just for the sake of having cliff hangers.  For example, the weight and after effects of everything that has happened is felt in the last episode.  However, some of the breakdowns in various relationships don’t feel earned or genuine.  A lot happens that feels like it just comes out of nowhere, or at least is not pulled off as well as it should be.  This is a problem with only the last episode specifically, but it did get annoying as the ending came.

            Overall, the show was fun and well made.  It wasn’t groundbreaking, but it was a good time.  So I have to recommend it for that entertainment value.  If it sounds up your ally, you’ll have a good time, and if it doesn’t then probably best to avoid.  I enjoyed it though and was happy to watch.

The Priest is Not His Own: An Overview

            I’ve always had an appreciation for the priesthood.  As a small child, I actually dreamed of becoming a bishop before hearing that I would not be allowed to marry.  However, while I have understood the basics of the priesthood, I wanted to get a greater understanding of its role, nature, etc.  So during a conversation with one of my priests from IU about the priesthood, he recommended the book “The Priest is Not His Own,” by future saint Archbishop Fulton J. Sheen, America’s second most famous televangelist (behind only Rev. Billy Graham).  The book was actually such an impressive overview of the priesthood that I felt a need to share it here.

            Now, it should be noted that this isn’t a traditional review like my previous ones.  In this case, I want to discuss the deeper implications and statements of Sheen as opposed to just saying what the book’s good or bad at.  So most of this will actually be aimed at discussing his points. Likewise, I finished this book a couple weeks ago so it has been a while since I’ve read it and I might not be as detailed as I should be.  However, I still wanted to share it here because this is a good book that deserves attention.

            The key to the priesthood is what calls him into the vocation.  The priest is defined as receiving a calling from God to perform his deeds, not acting out his own agency.  His work is God going through him, making the priest little more than a tool of God’s grace so that the Lord’s works may be done for the benefit of mankind.  There is much that must be done in promoting God’s work on this earth so he is the one that must perform that.

            In so doing, the priest is a reconnection between God and man.  Fulton Sheen described him as a literal Jacob’s ladder, allowing man a path towards heaven.  Man was after all separated from God in the Garden of Eden.  So the priest must perform the sacraments and duties of Christ, such as the Eucharist, which bring about that reconnection.  This makes him God’s agent.

            The key to performing this then is the rejection of the self.  The priest must reject the vices of the flesh and overcome his own brokenness.  He must continue to pursue a relationship with God above the moral vices of sin. This is of course what every person is called to as our duty as Christians is to become like Christ. However, the Priest must take this extremely seriously since that is his literal vocation.

            In so doing, sacrifice is a huge part of the priesthood.  The priest must forgo many things of this world in order to emulate his maker.  Suffering and pushing himself for his flock is a huge focus in the book.  He is essentially performing his own crucifixion as he sacrifices himself for God’s offspring.  In this way, becoming Christlike is his goal.

            Yet his humanity is also a huge part of his job.  It allows him to relate to his fellow man and go to them where they are. In this way, he can better connected to people and bring them to Christ.  Though not discussed in the book, this also allows different approaches to the priesthood and allows for more variety in addressing people’s needs. So this connection allows the priest to act as God’s tool yet still bring a needed individual approach.

            The final thing to review in the book is how it is written.  Fulton Sheen is an effective writer and gets his point across clearly.  He provides a lot of information in the book and it becomes easy to all take in.  He is a very good writer and knows a lot about the subject (duh!).  As a result, it makes the book a very effective presentation of the priesthood and its purpose.

            This is more of a Clift notes of the book as Sheen does go into a lot of detail. For that reason, I highly recommend reading it to get the full understanding of the priesthood. However, the overall points explain what the priesthood is and its role in the church, which should be brought to attention.  It simplifies the mystical and makes us better understand its significance.  It further solidifies why Sheen will most likely become a saint and the overall fundamental purpose of Catholicism: following Christ.

Remembering Marching on Memorial Day

            Today is Memorial Day, the day of honoring the sacrifice of various veterans who have given their lives in service to their country.  The federal government designates this as a federal holiday, so no school and no government work.  Instead, we are to remember those who have gone before us keeping this great country safe and free.  I myself had several members in the service, including my great-grandfather Robert D. Parcell who served in the engineers during WWII.  So I have always taken the message of today to heart.

            Today I went to Constitution Avenue to see the parade and there was a lot of floats and people marching.  Of note, Gary Sinise was in a float representing the Gary Sinise Foundation. There were also a few carriages with people dressed up as former Presidents Washington and Lincoln.  Also, there were also individuals carrying flags of South Korea, Taiwan, and South Vietnam which had been allies with the US in various wars and conflicts in Asia.  Most importantly though, there was a float dedicated to the families who had lost loved ones in America’s various wars.

            However, one thing that I saw a lot of was Marching Bands from high schools (and maybe a few colleges).  It’s actually a high honor to be in this parade as there is no greater place to celebrate patriotism than in the nation’s capital, especially when honoring the country’s veterans.  This brought back memories for myself though as I was in marching band in both in middle school and high school.  Unsurprisingly, I marched in the Memorial Day parades for North Webster, Milford, and Syracuse.  So today gave me a good time to reflect.

            Right at the end of the school year, band would start practicing marching again to prepare for the parade.  I don’t remember the exact songs we played, but it wasn’t that many.  The parades were not very long so it didn’t take that long. After marching, we’d usually meet at the cemetery for a service dedicating the veterans who had passed on. However, I always preferred the Webster parade as then we got to eat hot dogs at the American Legion afterwards.

            The honest truth though is that I was never as fond of marching in the Memorial Day parades and I don’t think other members of the band were interested either. Unless rain got it canceled, Memorial Day was always burning hot which was never pleasant.  Also, despite having the day off from school, we still had to get up really early to both practice and get in formation.  It didn’t help that every time the parade came around, we had not been practicing marching before it suddenly became the focus not long before the actual march.  It’s not how any kid wants to spend a three-day weekend.

            But looking back I’m still happy I was a part of it.  I got to provide services to honor America’s heroes.  I also remember when one of the band members was brought to play “Taps” at the North Webster graveyard.  It was a powerful moment that stays fresh in my mind. Even when I was unhappy about the heat that day, I still knew it was a significant event that was worth participating in and I felt good about that.  So I am happy to have been involved regardless.

            With those memories came back all the positive memories of why I loved band. I loved spending time with my friends and getting to know more people.  Several of the songs were fun to play and I was happy to learn them. Beyond that, I’ve always loved music so being able to play another instrument is nice.  I can definitely say I was happy to be a member of band and am happy to know that there are others who are having similar memories.

            Every federal holiday brings back memories, but there are a lot as well associated with Memorial Day.  From spending time with my family to performing services to honor the troops, there is a lot in my past associated with the holiday.  Today though I got to attend a parade honoring those this day is dedicated to in the nation’s capital.  There are a lot of experiences in my life I have or will continue to have and eagerly await them.  However, today was a good day.