Support Julie McGuire for Lieutenant Governor

            The Indiana State Republican Party will be having its state convention on Saturday, June 15th.  Though it is always a time for massive fanfare and rallying, the most important thing that happens is the selection of the candidates for the various offices such as Attorney General.  This time, the state Republican party is facing a unique choice as Pastor Micah Beckwith has decided to run for Lieutenant Governor (LG), a move that is uncommon as traditionally the LG is selected by the gubernatorial candidate of the party.  Being an elected delegate myself, I thought I would share a brief discussion on why the convention should honor tradition, and select future Governor Mike Braun’s pick for LG, Julie McGuire.

         The most obvious roles of the Lieutenant Governor are that they are, similar to the Vice President, one heartbeat away from the Governor’s mansion and to serve as President of the Senate.  However, in Indiana the LG also serves as the chairman of the Office of Community and Rural Affairs, the Indiana Housing and Community Development Authority, Office of Energy and Defense Development, and the Office of Tourism Development, while making appointments to the Corn Marketing Council, the Main Street Council, Steel Advisory Commission, and the Indiana Film Commission.  In other words, the position requires a lot of executive leadership and requires a candidate with experience in that field.  Just as well, it makes sense to have a candidate who shares the governor’s vision for the state.

         Julie McGuire has the experience needed to serve in that capacity as she has served for 15 years as the Parish Business Manager at St. Roch’s Catholic church.  In addition to that, she has been elected as State Rep. so she has experience dealing with the state legislature.  This gives her the background needed for the position.

         Julie does also have the endorsement of Senator and future Governor Mike Braun, so that means that she will be the candidate most dedicated to his platform.  McGuire will be the candidate most likely to enact the change Braun wants to bring to the state; from overhauling our state’s healthcare system to supporting state law enforcement to protecting the second amendment to staffing the various agencies loyal to those priorities.  Those who voted for Braun and would like to see his agenda made reality need to support Julie McGuire for that reason.

         As for Micah Beckwith, I respect many of the positions he has taken on this election cycle, and it does take serious courage to take on a challenge most would not consider.  However, he does not have experience in the general assembly nor has he been elected to office so his experience with the position should be drawn into question.  Similarly, he has promised to be a “check” on the governor, which draws into question if he would follow through on Braun’s plan for the state government.  With that in mind, it seems Julie McGuire is better suited for the position.

         It is for that reason the Republican delegates should vote for Julie McGuire for LG.  She has the experience, loyalty, and dedication needed for the position.  While I, as a Republican, will respect either candidate if elected, McGuire is the one best suited to keep the LG’s office as a partnership with the governor and bring a conservative vision to the state.

Review of my 2018 Election Forecast

Short review of everything I predicted in the 2018 midterms. This post was originally longer, but shortened for focus:

1. I was off in the Senate races by one (assuming McSally wins which I do) since Dean Heller lost Nevada. However, I knew Rick Scott and Mike Braun would win and those two were probably the more important races of the night. Also, as I said, pick up of 3.

2. I got the house wrong as I said the GOP would hold it. They lost by a slimmer margin than expected, but still that has to be admitted.

3. I was off the governors races by one (assuming Kemp wins which I do), but got more wrong based on the ones I predicted. I predicted the GOP would hold Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nevada while the Dems would take Ohio and Iowa, but the reverse happened. The first three probably had fatigue from eight years under the previous administrations, while Iowa had the benefit of incumbency and Ohio had a Republican who had previously held state office. However, I correctly predicted DeSantis winning in Florida despite polling and was extremely happy with that outcome. Also, I forgot to mention the GOP would take Alaska, but that was expected.

Predictions for the 2018 Election

            All year I’ve been looking forward to making a political prediction for the midterm elections.  After spending the 2016 year following political trends, I made a long series of predictions and surprisingly got more seats right than some of my friends expected. However, this year that is going to be much harder.  Unfortunately, most of the polls are both EXTREMELY close and well within the margin of error so it is impossible to get a good read on the election field.  In addition, the concept of a “Blue Wave” has been routinely pushed since last year and disregarded at different sections of the year so there is also the possibility that the samples of likely voters may not represent actual turn out.

            So overall, there is no clear way to know who is getting elected this year. Everything is so close in many ways that it could go anywhere from the status quo staying the same to Democrats taking the house in a landslide, and I’ve been stuck at school or DC so I haven’t really gotten a read of the electorate outside of IU.  As a result, I’m extremely skeptical any of my predictions will be accurate. However, trends in polls still exist as polling for candidates may be consistent and enthusiasm on both sides is high.  So I’m going to make my best guesses based on the information I have despite acknowledging I could be completely wrong on election day.

            To start off with the senate, I expect the GOP to increase its hold in the senate by about three seats (with a possible fourth).  The GOP should hold every senate seat and make pick ups in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri while the Dems hold the other seats.  In Arizona and Nevada, both GOP candidates are averaging ahead, but Heller will have the benefit of incumbency while Arizona has consistently voted for Republicans at the state level and recent events do not bode well for Sinema.  Meanwhile, Cramer is blowing Heitkamp out of the water while Hawley had a polling advantaged ahead of McCaskill since August.  Donnelly on the other hand is only ahead by a slim margin in a close race so natural partisanship will help Braun significantly once undecided voters have to vote in addition to the fact Donnelly has run a campaign where he says he promotes Trump yet votes against him on Kavanaugh, healthcare, and tax reform which weakens his credibility and message which calls into question inconsistency.  Finally, Rick Scott is within the margin of error with most of his recent polls, the GOP does have a lead on Democrats in early voting, and Rick Scott was reelected in 2014 despite being projected to lose so there is a strong chance Florida could swing his way, though Nelson has remained ahead in almost all polls so it would still be an upset if Scott wins.

            It’s hard to list 435 individual races so I’m instead going to go with trends I’ve seen in the House races.  According to RCP, the Dems have led the GOP in the generic house ballot by about 3-9 percent throughout the year, currently ranking in at a 7.3 point advantage which means they will make SOME pickups.  However, going by the Roll Call election guide and individual polls in the state, the GOP can still win individual races that would still put it well over the 218 number it needs.  I expect the GOP to therefore hold the house by winning all projected races in the guide which puts them at 201 seats in addition to the tossups with Dave Brat in Virginia, Steve Watkins in Kansas, Tom MacArthur in New Jersey, Mark Harris in North Carolina, Dino Rossi in Washington, Andy Barr in Kentucky, Troy Balderson in Ohio, Mia Love in Utah, Mike Bishop in Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, Pete Sessions in Texas, Carlos Curbelo in Florida, John Faso and Claudia Tenny of New York, and Young Kim, Steve Knight, and Dana Rohrabacher of California, plus potentially more coming out on top.  However, all Indiana congressional districts are projected to stay the same which means there will be no change.

            Finally, there will be the governors races.  The Dems will make huge gains as a lot of those seats were given to the GOP in 2014 which was an excellent year for them.  So the GOP will lose New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio, Iowa and Maine, but hold about everything else.  Iowa and Ohio have seen the Dem be the consistent favorite on RCP so things are leaning in their favor.  Kansas has the Republican with a minor consistent lead in the polls, Greg Orman is running as an independent which will cut into the Dem base, and the Dems were expected to win four years ago but still lost which will bode well for the GOP.  Wisconsin will still probably go Republican due to the incumbency as Scott Walker has survived multiple harsh challenges during his tenure and pulled through so he’ll have that going for him.  At the same time, the whole of the GOP is out voting in Nevada due to the senate race so I expect crossover since the race is so incredibly close plus the Republican has the average lead on RCP. Finally, I expect the GOP to hold Georgia and Florida as Brian Kemp has the lead in the former while in the latter Andrew Gillum has been hurling insults left and right while dodging a corruption probe which never ends well (plus positive early voting for Republicans in the state).  Beyond that, everything else should stay the same.

            To clarify, I really am unsure of how the election will go.  However, I really have looked forward to this all year so I would be unhappy if I didn’t.  So this is my best estimate of how the election will go.  Only tomorrow will tell if the election goes correctly or if I’m wrong.  Still, as always, civility is best and I wish all candidates the best tomorrow.  It is going to be an interesting two years regardless of who wins.

Halloween: October 31, 2018

Today is Halloween, the night of fright.  This is normally a festive time where people of all ages run around dressing up in costumes to get as many treats as possible. Unfortunately, the recent events of the Florida bomber and the Synagogue shooting have me rather upset.  In addition, the country is in the middle of a bitter election that just keeps getting worse.  As a result, there's a lot on my mind and I want to put it here.

First, Halloween is a time for fear.  We see it in our films, stories, and haunted houses which we love to attend this time of year.  Unfortunately, the goal of the recent terrorist attacks has been to instill fear in our hearts, to make us feel unsafe in our homes.  Some of the worst things in history were justified in the name of fear, so we can't let them win by dividing us and giving into that urge.  For as Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. said, "Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that."

Second, All Hollow's Eve is the day before All Saints Day and two days before All Souls Day.  It is on this day the Catholic Church celebrates and remembers the souls that have gone before us.  This has been celebrated in Mexico, Ireland, and France.  Recently, 11 innocent people lost their lives, and left behind loved ones despairing right now beyond words.  In the spirit of the season, we should keep them in our thoughts and prayers as we celebrate this holiday.

Halloween is a special time.  Every year, families spend time together going door to door, visiting neighbors they probably don't talk to otherwise.  That should serve as a reminder that no matter how polarized we allegedly are, we still trust our fellow man.  And with that in mind, the best thing you can do is go out there, meet up with friends and neighbors, and try to make their lives in this dark, dark world a little better.  In short, "if you want to make the world a better place, take a look at yourself, and then make a change."