This blogpost is going to be very late, but it’s worth making sure the general public is aware of what’s going on on the Asian continent. Over a month ago, Vladimir Putin went on a trip to Vietnam and North Korea, officially to discuss new military ties. However, one thing worth considering about both nations is that they both have at best mixed histories with Russia’s “ally,” China. While Russia has become increasingly dependent on China as its relationship with the West has deteriorated, its outreach may be aimed at creating a counterbalance to China’s power and may cause further divisions between the two nations.
For context, with Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, relations have continued to deteriorate between the country and most of Western Europe. One example of this would be alleged Russian involvement in overthrowing the governments of multiple former French colonies. However, the most pressing reason for deteriorating relations is the war in Ukraine itself which resulted in reduction in trade between the West and Russia. To compensate, Russia has become increasingly dependent on trade, especially military trade, with alternative countries such as China.
The relationship between Russia and China has always been contentious though because (my friend Sean says) no country wants to be the junior partner. Both nations have always had territorial, military, and political disputes. Current problems with their relationship include China claiming parts of Russia are historic Chinese territory (which there is a case for) and Russia preparing plans for a preemptive nuke strike on China in the event of needing to win a war fast. In short, it seems that as Russia becomes more dependent on China, China wants to take advantage of Russia while Russia wants to maintain its independence.
So Putin’s decision to visit North Korea and Vietnam this year likely isn’t something that made Beijing particularly happy. North Korea also has a contentious history with China while Vietnam has an outright hostile relationship with them (not helped by the fact that China invaded them after the US did). With all that historic background, it does seem possible the Russian President wanted to discuss potential alliances against China.
Though Russia has its own territorial disputes with Ukraine, China has other issues with its neighbors as well. Americans may be familiar with China’s desire to take Taiwan, but they are in a border dispute with India (a Russian ally), they are in a territorial dispute with the Philippines, and there are deteriorating relations between Malaysia and China. All this though also ignores historic clashes between China and countries like Japan or South Korea. Bottom line, most Asian countries that aren’t China, hate China.
So Putin’s decision to meet with Vietnam and North Korea suggests Putin may be preparing for the worst with China. Of course, both have a mutual enemy with the US, but like with the US and USSR after WWII, the lack of an enemy often leads to division. Regardless, Putin’s actions with China’s neighbors may suggest Russia considers their “ally” China a potential problem in the future.
