The Indiana Republican State Convention has come and gone, and the elected delegates have chosen Pastor Micah Beckwith as their candidate for Lieutenant Governor. This means Beckwith will be on the ballot along with Republican nominee Mike Braun for Governor. I had promised to support whoever was chosen for Lieutenant Governor, so (barring something crazy happening) Braun and Beckwith will both have my vote.
Still, the slim, 891-828 decision by the delegates to pick Beckwith was a huge upset as, historically, the convention has confirmed the candidate selected by the governor, and Senator Braun had endorsed State Rep. Julie McGuire. This being an upset of epic proportions has left a lot of questions for the future of the party, as well as how the state got to this point. So the purpose of this post is to address that and show what his victory will mean for the state.
As stated earlier, the party historically chooses the candidate selected by the governor, but this time the delegates at the convention picked Micah Beckwith in defiance of the endorsement of Mike Braun (and former President Donald Trump). Admittedly, Beckwith put in a lot of time and energy into his campaign, announcing his candidacy last year and going to events, doing mailers, emails, texts, and everything else in the lead up to the convention. He ran a real election campaign and put in a lot of time into it long before Braun had won the primary, so the fact that he had a wide base of support is not that surprising.
Another issue was that Braun’s support in the party was not absolute. In the election, Braun got roughly 40% of the vote in this year’s primary, which meant 60% of the party had wanted someone else as governor. Sure, the party almost always falls in line behind its candidate, but that doesn’t mean they automatically give 100% support to that candidate and may feel differently about other races. As a result, Beckwith’s victory does show there are divisions within the state Republican party.
The primary itself was also a reminder of those divisions as three other counties voted for someone other than Braun. Vanderburgh county, and its neighbor Warwick, voted for Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, which makes sense as she was the former chair of the Vanderburgh County GOP. However, the other county that chose to vote for someone else was Marion which includes the state capital, Indianapolis, which voted for Brad Chambers. That was technically his home turf as well, but keeping in mind that county and its suburbs voted significantly less for Diego Morales in 2022 than it did for Connie Lawson in 2018. This suggests that the Indianapolis GOP is increasingly distant from the rest of the state.
This is reflected in the leadership of the state legislature. Not one member of the state legislature’s Republican leadership has a district including Indianapolis (though Speaker Todd Huston’s district does include the suburbs) which shows that Marion county is decreasing its power in the state legislature and that impact can be seen across the state. As a result, with Holcomb leaving office next year, it would appear the house that Lugar, Daniels, Oesterle, and Bosma built is fading.
Still, this alone doesn’t explain why Julie McGuire lost. After all, Mike Braun is also from Jasper so he is just as much a part of the de-Indyfication of the state party as well. This begs the question then why many felt that it was necessary to oppose Braun’s choice for Lt. Gov.
Well, the growing backlash against party leadership has been felt across the state for a while now and without a clear replacement, it looks like it’s redirecting towards whoever seems to be in power at the time of the vote. This has been a consistent trend over the last eight years though as the party continues to see its candidates and proposals lose at the convention.
In every single convention since 2016, the establishment has lost one bid against the convention delegates. After all, Curtis Hill defeated former state Attorney General Steve Carter (of Indianapolis) in the nomination for Carter’s old seat in 2016, the party failed to remove traditional marriage from the platform in 2018 (thanks to then Morgan County GOP Chairman Daniel Elliott), Todd Rokita beat Nate Harter for the nomination for Attorney General in 2020 (and incumbent Curtis Hill), and Diego Morales beat recently appointed Secretary of State Holli Sullivan for her position while Daniel Elliott beat both Pete Seat and (current State Auditor/Comptroller) Elise Nieshalla to gain the nomination for State Treasurer in 2022. Bottom line: the party supported candidates continue to lose at convention and Micah Beckwith beating Julie McGuire is just 2024’s version of that.
However, Mike Braun’s electoral history is just as much a part of that establishment backlash as he beat Chair of the House Republican Policy Committee Luke Messer for the Senate nomination (as well as current Attorney General Todd Rokita). He also surprisingly jumped into the Indiana governor’s race in 2024 and beat a crowded field including Lieutenant Governor Suzanne Crouch and Brad Chambers who had the support of former INGOP Chair Kyle Hupfer. This also serves as a reminder that it’s a good time to oppose the political establishment in Indiana, which was another factor in Micah Beckwith’s favor.
Still, the loudest supporters I saw for Micah Beckwith were either from supporters of Curtis Hill, who came in dead last in the 2024 Republican governor primary, or fans of former State Rep. John Jacobs (who lost to Julie McGuire in his 2022 primary by a wide margin). Similarly, Micah Beckwith came in a distant third to Rep. Victoria Spartz in his bid for Congress in 2020. This suggests the anti-establishment primary voters and the anti-establishment delegates at the convention have different priorities, and are different types of anti-establishment.
All of this posits a divided Indiana Republican Party with voters, elected delegates, and former party leadership all coming with different goals. It might not be that surprising since the state Democratic party is pretty weak in the legislature and governors’ races so the lack of a common enemy is making internal divisions more pronounced. This may cause problems in the future for voters, but for now that isn’t likely to make too much of a splash in the general elections unless some major event that hurts Braun’s bid for governor appears. Still, it’s likely we may continue to see further anti-establishment “surprises” at future conventions.
As for Beckwith, his lack of legislative experience is part of the reason I backed McGuire, but he will now be able to develop a record as a candidate and as an official if elected. This is his opportunity to prove that he can deliver for his base and keep his promises on the campaign trail. This is actually going to be harder to do than his supporters probably want to admit.
A lot of the support for Beckwith was built around the belief that he needed to be a “check” on the governor (a position Beckwith himself pivoted from at the convention). This was a reference to Suzanne Crouch not condemning Holcomb’s Covid policies. Similarly, several of the delegates I knew who backed Beckwith were upset about the primary losses of John Jacobs and former State Rep. Curt Nisly (who was the district Rep. of my hometown and someone I know personally) in 2022 which happened with state party backing. In short, Julie McGuire’s defeat for Lt. Gov. can be seen as an act of revenge.
Still, it’s easier to oppose something than it is to do something. If elected, Beckwith will have to prove his conservative bonafides, and do so while working with a Governor that already has a much more conservative agenda than his predecessor. After all, Braun has one of the most conservative ratings in the US Senate, and has had a history of opposing establishment candidates in previous elections, so Beckwith will need to find a niche in the new administration.
Now, the Lt. Gov. is in control of several agencies, but the state legislature can curtail his power at any moment. Likely, if Braun is dissatisfied with Beckwith’s leadership, he can limit that power. So this begs the question: would Beckwith do well to follow Braun’s leadership or “check” his power?
I have no predictions about Beckwith’s plans and do wish him the best in the office, but it does highlight one problem. Some people I know have claimed that candidates who fought the establishment like Daniel Elliott and Diego Morales “fell in line” or sold out upon getting elected (which I don’t believe at all and support both of them in their positions). So if Beckwith does start to follow Braun too closely, is he going to be called a sell out too? If Braun starts reducing the Lt. Gov’s responsibilities, will this be seen as an opportunity for Beckwith to claim retaliation for being a “check?” Time will see what happens, but it’s easy for “outsiders” to suddenly fall out of favor with their base when they stop merely opposing things and actually have to work in the system to accomplish things.
The last noteworthy point is a growing divide among Indiana’s various statewide elected officials. Now this section is going to be posited as a rumor and asked to be taken with a grain of salt since I won’t be naming my sources, but it is something worth considering. With the disclaimer out of the way, it would appear that the beneficiary of Beckwith’s victory might be Todd Rokita.
Daniel Elliott, Diego Morales, and Elise Nieshalla all backed Julie Mcguire for Lt. Gov. People I met at a county Lincoln Day Dinner though told me Rokita was backing Beckwith, though without an official endorsement (which was also claimed by a delegate at the state convention). This shows a divide among the state party leadership, and suggests a growing divide for the future of the party.
Now, Rokita is no stranger to endorsements, having spoken positively of Diego Morales in 2022 when Morales was facing attacks over his performance in the Indiana Secretary of State office (which Rokita was head of at the time), and did support former Deputy Attorney General Andrew Ireland this year (whom I made phone calls for). So, he’s got no problem endorsing candidates, and likely does want to have an impact on who’s getting elected in the GOP.
Rokita’s next term will end in 2028, a time when Senator Todd Young will be up for reelection. Similarly, if Beckwith makes it to the end of both of Braun’s terms in 2032, he’ll be a strong contender for governor (assuming he has a strong two terms). It is possible that Rokita sees this as an opportunity to expand his influence in the state by running for senate, and having a candidate he backed run for governor would do that.
Still, there are other candidates that may want the office of Governor in 2032, from Elliott to Morales to any of the Reps. currently in office or could be in office. Nothing is set in stone (as Braun proved in 2018 when he defeated two congressional representatives despite being a state representative), but this could be the new divide in the party. Without a clear head at the top of the party chain (like Lugar and Daniels used to be), there will be new fights, and new cliques in the government.
With that, that’s probably a good point to leave at what Beckwith’s victory really means for the state party. There are new factions rising in the party that are in competition with each other, and new coalitions that are all fighting each other. Only time will tell who comes out on top, but there’s a long road ahead. If Beckwith’s victory proves anything, it’s that nothing, not even allegedly safe offices, are safe anymore. For me though, as long as I’m in Indiana, I’ll be staying with team Braun, and team Dave Hall this November.
