Unsurprisingly, there was mass controversy surrounding statements by double President Donald J. Trump last month. While this is the norm, specifically the post will be addressing statements he made to reduce military exercises with South Korea. Much of the world was shocked by his decision since historically South Korea has been a vital ally against long time U.S. enemies North Korea and China.
Now, many were shocked at the President’s announcement, especially since it seemed to be in part related to a former bromance between Trump and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. However, Trump is a master of misdirecting public conversation so the immediate conversation ignored the most important part of the cancellation. Specifically, his decision to cancel the military exercises over South Korea’s decision to not support the U.S. in its current war with Iran. As such, the U.S. is reconsidering many foreign relationships as it is now asking how truly loyal the rest of the world is to its objectives.
South Korea is hardly the only country to face repercussions over perceived lack of loyalty. Arguments over Iran led to the President reducing troops in Germany and Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly questioning the purpose of NATO. Then, of course, there was the fighting between the Vatican and Washington. In short, there seems to be a belief that if you question the U.S., the country will start to reduce its support for yours.
Military correspondent for Newsmax Ryan McBeth noted that the United States is increasingly cancelling its relationship with countries that won’t support its objectives. Keeping in mind that Trump got elected on a promise to reduce foreign entanglements and focus on American issues at home, this is seen more as a surprise to his non-interventionist supporters. However, it seems that America First is being less of a call against foreign intervention and more a demand to other countries over who they need to please.
So this is reprioritizing other country’s military objectives away from their own citizens and more towards ours. Keeping in mind that support from the United States makes up a large portion of the European defense budget and we are protecting their ability to trade, most of those countries can’t exactly walk away from us. If that doesn’t come as increased spending for NATO, that may instead mean support in other ways such as required sanctions on military enemies. Keeping in mind that Europe wanted increased trade with Iran, their interests may not be represented by the U.S. at this time.
That begs the question then as to what this will lead to going forward. After all, there are moral concerns about US foreign policy, economic concerns as well, and concerns about feasibility. How might the rest of the world handle such decisions or how should it act?
Well, the purpose of this blogpost isn’t to make moral judgments or recommendations. Merely to make an awareness of what seems to be the thinking or direction current events are going. Instead, we’ll be discussing the possible consequences that could come from this direction on and for foreign policy.
Now, the priority of every country needs to be the well-being of its people. Every country has to consider whether a relationship with the United States is worth it. So what that determination is could likely lead to one of three foreign policy outcomes.
First, countries get increasingly independent or form new alliances. Many countries, like Saudi Arabia or South Korea, have the capability to pursue developing the nuclear bomb, and if they can’t trust the U.S. to provide proper deterrence against their historic enemies, they may be provoked into increasing the number of countries in the world with nuclear bombs. In addition, the U.S. 's frenemies Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia to counter their rivals (and two U.S. frenemies) Israel, India, and (US enemy) Iran. This alone shows that other countries are capable of forming alliances that exist outside of the European or Chinese spheres of influence and thus could make new counter balances to existing power.
Then again, other countries may have an interest in simply replacing their dependence on the U.S. with dependency on China. Europe has been pursuing new, better relationships with China as Britain pursued building a better embassy in London or returning the Chagos Islands to China’s ally Mauritius while France has pursued greater trade with China and sought their support to end the war in Ukraine. In addition, Canada, the U.S.’s neighbor to the north, had pursued a greater oil trade deal with China. So, instead of developing new alliances or replace the US with their own militaries, these countries may just want a new creditor to continue their dependency.
Of course, the U.S. likely wouldn’t let that happen peacefully. After all, the country has seen China as a threat, if not outright enemy, for at least the last decade and a half so it’s no surprise that it wouldn’t want its allies making allies with the dragon empire. Just ask Alberta, home to most of Canada’s oil, which is allegedly receiving US support in its bid for independence at a time when Canada is both pursuing better relations with China AND a trade war with the U.S., its biggest trading partner. Likely, the U.S. has other plans for other nations as well so it’s worth asking if pursuing such a new alliance is worth it.
Finally, there’s the possibility that other countries just accept the U.S.’s new foreign policy and decide that it’s better to stay in its good graces. After all, the U.S. still has the world’s largest GDP and most advanced military so there are reasons to stay friends with it. Across Latin America the U.S. is supporting anti-crime initiatives (with or without that country’s support) so there is a benefit to receiving U.S. aid. Meanwhile, the overthrow of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela told that country what can happen if you cross President Trump, so unsurprisingly the new President is all too happy to work with the Secretary of State. So there are still people that want to do business with us.
Whatever happens, this is America’s foreign policy until 2029 and (I personally find it) doubtful that it’s going to change anytime soon. We’ll see what the future holds, but this is what other countries will have to accept if they want a relationship with the world’s only superpower. Either way, only the reactions of those countries will determine if that direction is here to stay.
