Review of my 2018 Election Forecast

Short review of everything I predicted in the 2018 midterms. This post was originally longer, but shortened for focus:

1. I was off in the Senate races by one (assuming McSally wins which I do) since Dean Heller lost Nevada. However, I knew Rick Scott and Mike Braun would win and those two were probably the more important races of the night. Also, as I said, pick up of 3.

2. I got the house wrong as I said the GOP would hold it. They lost by a slimmer margin than expected, but still that has to be admitted.

3. I was off the governors races by one (assuming Kemp wins which I do), but got more wrong based on the ones I predicted. I predicted the GOP would hold Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nevada while the Dems would take Ohio and Iowa, but the reverse happened. The first three probably had fatigue from eight years under the previous administrations, while Iowa had the benefit of incumbency and Ohio had a Republican who had previously held state office. However, I correctly predicted DeSantis winning in Florida despite polling and was extremely happy with that outcome. Also, I forgot to mention the GOP would take Alaska, but that was expected.

Predictions for the 2018 Election

            All year I’ve been looking forward to making a political prediction for the midterm elections.  After spending the 2016 year following political trends, I made a long series of predictions and surprisingly got more seats right than some of my friends expected. However, this year that is going to be much harder.  Unfortunately, most of the polls are both EXTREMELY close and well within the margin of error so it is impossible to get a good read on the election field.  In addition, the concept of a “Blue Wave” has been routinely pushed since last year and disregarded at different sections of the year so there is also the possibility that the samples of likely voters may not represent actual turn out.

            So overall, there is no clear way to know who is getting elected this year. Everything is so close in many ways that it could go anywhere from the status quo staying the same to Democrats taking the house in a landslide, and I’ve been stuck at school or DC so I haven’t really gotten a read of the electorate outside of IU.  As a result, I’m extremely skeptical any of my predictions will be accurate. However, trends in polls still exist as polling for candidates may be consistent and enthusiasm on both sides is high.  So I’m going to make my best guesses based on the information I have despite acknowledging I could be completely wrong on election day.

            To start off with the senate, I expect the GOP to increase its hold in the senate by about three seats (with a possible fourth).  The GOP should hold every senate seat and make pick ups in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri while the Dems hold the other seats.  In Arizona and Nevada, both GOP candidates are averaging ahead, but Heller will have the benefit of incumbency while Arizona has consistently voted for Republicans at the state level and recent events do not bode well for Sinema.  Meanwhile, Cramer is blowing Heitkamp out of the water while Hawley had a polling advantaged ahead of McCaskill since August.  Donnelly on the other hand is only ahead by a slim margin in a close race so natural partisanship will help Braun significantly once undecided voters have to vote in addition to the fact Donnelly has run a campaign where he says he promotes Trump yet votes against him on Kavanaugh, healthcare, and tax reform which weakens his credibility and message which calls into question inconsistency.  Finally, Rick Scott is within the margin of error with most of his recent polls, the GOP does have a lead on Democrats in early voting, and Rick Scott was reelected in 2014 despite being projected to lose so there is a strong chance Florida could swing his way, though Nelson has remained ahead in almost all polls so it would still be an upset if Scott wins.

            It’s hard to list 435 individual races so I’m instead going to go with trends I’ve seen in the House races.  According to RCP, the Dems have led the GOP in the generic house ballot by about 3-9 percent throughout the year, currently ranking in at a 7.3 point advantage which means they will make SOME pickups.  However, going by the Roll Call election guide and individual polls in the state, the GOP can still win individual races that would still put it well over the 218 number it needs.  I expect the GOP to therefore hold the house by winning all projected races in the guide which puts them at 201 seats in addition to the tossups with Dave Brat in Virginia, Steve Watkins in Kansas, Tom MacArthur in New Jersey, Mark Harris in North Carolina, Dino Rossi in Washington, Andy Barr in Kentucky, Troy Balderson in Ohio, Mia Love in Utah, Mike Bishop in Michigan, Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, Pete Sessions in Texas, Carlos Curbelo in Florida, John Faso and Claudia Tenny of New York, and Young Kim, Steve Knight, and Dana Rohrabacher of California, plus potentially more coming out on top.  However, all Indiana congressional districts are projected to stay the same which means there will be no change.

            Finally, there will be the governors races.  The Dems will make huge gains as a lot of those seats were given to the GOP in 2014 which was an excellent year for them.  So the GOP will lose New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio, Iowa and Maine, but hold about everything else.  Iowa and Ohio have seen the Dem be the consistent favorite on RCP so things are leaning in their favor.  Kansas has the Republican with a minor consistent lead in the polls, Greg Orman is running as an independent which will cut into the Dem base, and the Dems were expected to win four years ago but still lost which will bode well for the GOP.  Wisconsin will still probably go Republican due to the incumbency as Scott Walker has survived multiple harsh challenges during his tenure and pulled through so he’ll have that going for him.  At the same time, the whole of the GOP is out voting in Nevada due to the senate race so I expect crossover since the race is so incredibly close plus the Republican has the average lead on RCP. Finally, I expect the GOP to hold Georgia and Florida as Brian Kemp has the lead in the former while in the latter Andrew Gillum has been hurling insults left and right while dodging a corruption probe which never ends well (plus positive early voting for Republicans in the state).  Beyond that, everything else should stay the same.

            To clarify, I really am unsure of how the election will go.  However, I really have looked forward to this all year so I would be unhappy if I didn’t.  So this is my best estimate of how the election will go.  Only tomorrow will tell if the election goes correctly or if I’m wrong.  Still, as always, civility is best and I wish all candidates the best tomorrow.  It is going to be an interesting two years regardless of who wins.